{"ticker":"0xb00e791c299299858a0e333a31b841f51038e6f14321f25eba03c41a5b6f58f7","venue":"polymarket","title":"Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto","description":"This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\n1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n\nThis market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.\n\n2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Something\" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame.\n\nQualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.\n\nIf Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.\n\nUnverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","price":93,"bestBid":92,"bestAsk":93,"spread":1,"volume":6600.234297000003,"volume24h":6.451611,"openInterest":11064.3214,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":253,"iyYes":10.860528330060077,"iyNo":1916.9940719732601,"cri":13.286,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.295,"label":"maker","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":353482,"askDepthUsd":5890,"volume24h":6.451611,"observability":"none","eventType":"cultural","asPrior":0.05},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:58:55.001Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T10:08:00.887Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1574.5860498615802,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T14:37:39.542Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1390.6106671121313,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T09:05:40.159Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1592.2479620364093,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T12:25:42.161Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1400.686026201242,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T11:55:33.995Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1605.1441092454018,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T01:40:34.785Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1414.3852970358166,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T15:50:33.178Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1618.5316572838758,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T16:40:34.160Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1423.2488982300986,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T18:10:41.565Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1619.1372573222818,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T02:45:53.956Z","priceCents":91,"iy":1425.5578946464866,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T03:10:26.472Z","priceCents":92,"iy":1646.9309603402558,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T03:20:17.983Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1902.7178400326918,"cri":13.286}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["maker regime"],"warnings":["cliff risk 13.3"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 84c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0xb00e791c299299858a0e333a31b841f51038e6f14321f25eba03c41a5b6f58f7","marketTitle":"Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":84},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Nothing%20Ever%20Happens%3A%20Satoshi%20Nakamoto","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2839}