{"ticker":"0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1","venue":"polymarket","title":"Negative GDP growth in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.","price":6,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":7,"spread":2,"volume":21524.937266999987,"volume24h":216.57500000000002,"openInterest":13293.1626,"status":"open","closeTime":"2027-01-29","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":282,"iyYes":2028.417952237881,"iyNo":8.2642650838121,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.5,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"bidDepthUsd":426207,"askDepthUsd":159363,"volume24h":216.57500000000002,"observability":"low","eventType":"data_release","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T02:12:40.812Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T04:20:16.214Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1696.6281857699148,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T05:00:15.895Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1468.730645821597,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T05:15:39.922Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1696.8537846412862,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T05:40:16.301Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1468.8694167214906,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T05:45:18.749Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1696.9784834426491,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T06:10:44.120Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1468.9773677745386,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T06:20:20.787Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1697.1210188025707,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T09:45:54.223Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2002.2666288506134,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T09:50:57.529Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1697.9886250518973,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T10:15:55.976Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2002.4138687733157,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T10:25:56.806Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1698.1372767270893,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T14:50:54.861Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2003.7540457610469,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T14:55:55.141Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1699.250017270327,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:06:07.924Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2003.824261516879,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:10:55.626Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1699.3155180121435,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:20:55.325Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2003.9015045322867,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:26:08.974Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1699.3750685231878,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:35:55.259Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2003.971730623211,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:00:53.692Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1700.0184800948339,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:15:56.031Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2004.751570904867,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:20:55.806Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1700.101920972431,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:51:06.514Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2004.9202648294563,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:55:55.091Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1700.2449815349735,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T19:11:14.863Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2005.0186827301911,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T19:31:13.492Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1700.3880661761275,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T22:10:26.670Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2005.8978424466923,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T22:15:26.200Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1701.068047232012,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T23:26:23.374Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2006.2708389615339,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T23:56:00.179Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1701.4858490211377,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T01:20:40.397Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2006.8270724540025,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T05:55:34.478Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1702.9796751169304,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T07:30:41.730Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2008.6387272103511,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T08:00:31.905Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1703.5001420210751,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T08:15:40.371Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2008.8574747531525,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T00:20:32.025Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1713.6132933380854,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T00:30:34.878Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2020.7624358462408,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:35:32.622Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1714.1826966777828,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:35:26.955Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2025.558283063357,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:40:27.918Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1717.7470162716613,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T22:10:30.842Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2027.2314317181656,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T22:45:37.268Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1719.287831423182,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T22:55:29.882Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2027.4542478446112,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T23:10:31.048Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1719.397559969973,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T23:25:36.270Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2027.6052156317664,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T00:45:48.842Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1719.8000178338368,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T00:50:33.384Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2028.0294835647453,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T01:05:30.130Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1719.8793120482746,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T01:10:28.744Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2028.130183377017,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T02:00:32.151Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1720.1172385695434,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T02:06:30.488Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2028.4107570211036,"cri":15.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 2028%"],"warnings":["cliff risk 15.7","illiquid (LAS 0.50)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Negative%20GDP%20growth%20in%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":3906}