{"ticker":"0xedef61bebfc58d0d6e890f6fa8c277f7da8a0a0df71180ae49efd90ee037925f","venue":"polymarket","title":"Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".","price":8,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":11,"spread":6,"volume":16210.792223000008,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":4639.20828,"status":"open","closeTime":"2028-01-01","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":602,"iyYes":697.6879477419676,"iyNo":5.275523234343801,"cri":11.5,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.75,"cvr":null,"overround":0.16,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":6,"bidDepthUsd":27998,"askDepthUsd":794,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T08:57:01.115Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x4b5d821d5b477953ac6ace9ec9155cf1a65e52780cd4d4b443ccce216cd79b1c","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xb597a6a7f4720d228a1ce9976ba46d3281e041b3d062b5399da500258cbd2da9","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1ff60bd285eb7f33fa1a5acef5e5a6a876c8635b134518f28e61f3acef546e9c","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf4514becb361afd680466e3606f37987fd5ac935305fe2195137c6b9180c204c","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $400M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf5870f0480b48e0c89a3245cbce3d7f1bddeb95ffc13ed5b7c5c6f3e9eaf0f1f","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa9e02ddf507d5db703833c985899989a0debe08caa4bd80fccf2b774b6c960d4","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x6a85bc92e7a8fa5bc58dce15a419c06aa075b924f186207d5d8726642a8b9a46","connectedTitle":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:242022","groupLabel":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:10:54.042Z","priceCents":11,"iy":486.3934847678809,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:15:54.851Z","priceCents":9,"iy":607.8430511360435,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:30:56.261Z","priceCents":10,"iy":541.0569139167744,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:35:55.486Z","priceCents":9,"iy":607.8570673014807,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:40:57.606Z","priceCents":8,"iy":691.3584720442469,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:46:10.054Z","priceCents":12,"iy":440.8684504544569,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T20:50:54.935Z","priceCents":8,"iy":691.3664431564193,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T08:10:49.570Z","priceCents":10,"iy":541.490359493554,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T08:15:55.333Z","priceCents":8,"iy":691.9077698069417,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T15:01:40.958Z","priceCents":12,"iy":441.42174081782304,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T15:05:52.648Z","priceCents":8,"iy":692.232972882938,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T04:01:42.023Z","priceCents":13,"iy":403.1963164197843,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T04:06:39.827Z","priceCents":8,"iy":692.8522734963167,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T12:26:18.807Z","priceCents":11,"iy":487.7406459947312,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T12:30:17.383Z","priceCents":8,"iy":693.252780030356,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T12:40:17.506Z","priceCents":11,"iy":487.7487015389347,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T12:45:21.440Z","priceCents":8,"iy":693.2642298779954,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T13:20:13.737Z","priceCents":11,"iy":487.771258478376,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T13:25:28.117Z","priceCents":8,"iy":693.2962914635776,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:25:32.452Z","priceCents":7,"iy":801.5586768343047,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:31:40.826Z","priceCents":8,"iy":693.8268829610333,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:40:14.706Z","priceCents":7,"iy":802.0133855549697,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:45:44.348Z","priceCents":12,"iy":442.7220736374167,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:50:37.113Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.2721513753121,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T11:10:53.442Z","priceCents":12,"iy":442.7652814674885,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T11:30:45.030Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.3525441672732,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T12:30:43.671Z","priceCents":12,"iy":442.80556754935515,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T12:35:48.113Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.4042350800281,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T15:25:45.803Z","priceCents":11,"iy":488.6485666885332,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T15:36:16.411Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.5478613386283,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T16:41:32.022Z","priceCents":11,"iy":488.6906145376621,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T16:45:44.287Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.6030296110223,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T17:10:44.220Z","priceCents":20,"iy":241.60825042529672,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T17:15:44.551Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.6271684861845,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T19:10:49.683Z","priceCents":12,"iy":443.00930760900206,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T19:16:01.829Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.7237407666705,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T19:30:47.661Z","priceCents":11,"iy":488.7860576579467,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T19:40:58.730Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.7432884239796,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T20:30:54.489Z","priceCents":11,"iy":488.8200379349028,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T20:36:42.626Z","priceCents":8,"iy":694.7881372063806,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T21:45:41.231Z","priceCents":11,"iy":489.6727068929367,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T21:50:28.033Z","priceCents":8,"iy":695.998938798521,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T05:15:43.400Z","priceCents":11,"iy":489.9261619363946,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T05:25:48.004Z","priceCents":8,"iy":696.3638113123659,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T08:26:54.266Z","priceCents":11,"iy":490.03428505227237,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T08:31:39.793Z","priceCents":8,"iy":696.5128724207452,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T09:35:55.663Z","priceCents":11,"iy":490.0733186494886,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T09:41:23.952Z","priceCents":8,"iy":696.5695092566162,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T15:20:56.615Z","priceCents":11,"iy":490.2685799491697,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T15:30:34.091Z","priceCents":8,"iy":696.8493610069826,"cri":11.5}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 698%","7 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 11.5","illiquid (LAS 0.75)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x4b5d821d5b477953ac6ace9ec9155cf1a65e52780cd4d4b443ccce216cd79b1c","reason":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xb597a6a7f4720d228a1ce9976ba46d3281e041b3d062b5399da500258cbd2da9","reason":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x1ff60bd285eb7f33fa1a5acef5e5a6a876c8635b134518f28e61f3acef546e9c","reason":"Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Probable%20FDV%20above%20%24100M%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":827}