{"ticker":"0xf0cfdff5567f3b71dca486d4be95501fc515e402f0c6e098a118c9d52f931d00","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTakes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.\n\nAn official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.","price":25,"bestBid":10,"bestAsk":40,"spread":30,"volume":2491.3797459999996,"volume24h":23,"openInterest":1533.5976,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"low","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","thesisPrice":22,"edge":-3,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-06-06T06:04:26.954Z","firstDetectedPrice":13}],"indicators":{"tauDays":206,"iyYes":532.3752199998055,"iyNo":59.152802222200606,"cri":3,"ee":-18,"eeSource":"thesis","las":1.2,"cvr":null,"overround":6.35,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.45,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":30,"sfEdgeCents":-3,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-06-08T07:50:54.431Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":{"ticker":"KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TSM","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?: TSMC","confidenceScore":0.78,"priceCents":null},"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"0x063bcc769a02477cbaa9bafd576934fb9dddced3bb671b0b7bbf8f691d627969","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Lockheed Martin","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1166beee8722f02d9c79f60252c6eba339e32c699414cbd363c0973d55fc261b","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: OpenAI","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x11c846106277b0b0eccd71a5c7297073c646bf5a19a8ef92b2f9305e97e2be38","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1adad084557cf5ab0fc502e9ea0a44964a8c88e90d72953bd22417f49a5341a5","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Palantir","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1e4ae24fb0a3f204679a8d860d34b0935381d35a6c7bc0713ee9e56451cf1d3c","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Pfizer","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x29de69eea09afcb0cde8301eca3e6fcabf826dcb8a8dafacc0d20f3404a735ff","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: GlobalFoundries","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x3445836e43dca8145d09435480dde2d09348b6a585e26c42cc227b7dae7555b1","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anthropic","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x3e318837fa58267e33e8af09dea56455c74ccb948627cfd0ae3bb6e69fa54788","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: IonQ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0x6e2c5a9e54e6eead88dca03bd6de7a357c154856724b9d4a27d8dc9a2628d27c","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Boeing","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xb8aa75c192ef213dd9c9c3762feacfd84d6f331f0b8893c45c8fb5ec6f1ebf59","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: D-Wave","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xbabf4d97e342229baf65bfb0d7127c09a5bec0d76a7beb49bc47b1d9cf5c4091","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Samsung Electronics","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe5ea729b91b19f0930ecd4b892ad33a571e5f739355c09334bdb31f322a7abcb","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Eli Lilly","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe61206a9db350886fbc62f56da9b6f7343a931b9e609038c486e9048aac1246c","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: TikTok US / Bytedance","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xec8dc021aeb7c770c0f551da37b9f1aee4e7b97834ab12f51b524ed269c8487a","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Micron","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf179f57bcd9d754aee6245c7816d523f3dabcd476e6f26c4b9f6cd8108e72a9f","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Rigetti","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xf86df821bd41f20c0b67674bfc03a7db9408bc336103ffdf9675cb8e313797f1","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Nvidia","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"},{"connectedTicker":"0xfafdaf9f3f99130049785151e16e60f11bbd890359e0dcf6f6f9fab85dfc6a0a","connectedTitle":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Freeport-McMoRan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:197077","groupLabel":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T15:15:27.779Z","priceCents":20,"iy":704.0759244613337,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T15:30:28.626Z","priceCents":22,"iy":624.0973933904863,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T15:45:24.923Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1081.3689669498644,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T16:01:17.771Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1178.154991845112,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T16:15:25.622Z","priceCents":17,"iy":859.5567416685132,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T16:30:37.629Z","priceCents":23,"iy":589.4287459187748,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T16:45:25.987Z","priceCents":21,"iy":662.3646844194644,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T17:00:40.338Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1081.6402338465525,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T17:30:25.571Z","priceCents":18,"iy":802.2240341281598,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T17:45:31.294Z","priceCents":20,"iy":704.4292193380295,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T18:01:24.043Z","priceCents":18,"iy":802.3091922169846,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T18:30:29.978Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1081.9638453801624,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T19:00:29.154Z","priceCents":23,"iy":589.7245867626397,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T19:15:29.762Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1082.1257237728437,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T19:30:26.201Z","priceCents":22,"iy":624.6004378126568,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T19:45:34.381Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1082.2354108529696,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T20:00:26.881Z","priceCents":17,"iy":860.2081536204839,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T20:15:38.255Z","priceCents":18,"iy":802.6693785252554,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T20:30:25.312Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1179.2128777250382,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T20:45:30.513Z","priceCents":18,"iy":802.7507556800048,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T21:00:42.281Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1082.5071126821276,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T21:30:40.820Z","priceCents":18,"iy":802.8709140227992,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T21:45:28.796Z","priceCents":22,"iy":624.8839454210954,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T22:00:29.506Z","priceCents":23,"iy":590.080557911142,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T01:15:25.913Z","priceCents":21,"iy":663.4977086491477,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T04:15:24.950Z","priceCents":24,"iy":558.8514494680637,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T04:45:28.229Z","priceCents":22,"iy":625.7632465309374,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T05:00:33.607Z","priceCents":23,"iy":590.9137833557216,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T07:45:42.626Z","priceCents":24,"iy":559.2462312368253,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T08:15:29.738Z","priceCents":23,"iy":591.2998034120134,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T10:00:24.236Z","priceCents":24,"iy":559.5007010902801,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T10:15:28.468Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1590.2368654180361,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T10:30:24.286Z","priceCents":23,"iy":591.5688857288031,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T10:45:31.773Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1590.3985437081221,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T11:15:30.734Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1786.9257184420526,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T11:30:24.993Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1590.6372717544464,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T11:45:39.047Z","priceCents":23,"iy":591.7178450143482,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T12:00:24.959Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1787.193973634652,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T12:30:29.762Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1590.9608241031776,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T12:45:25.188Z","priceCents":21,"iy":665.0402183850467,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T13:00:37.372Z","priceCents":23,"iy":591.8668793358119,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T13:15:27.172Z","priceCents":25,"iy":530.3999069983724,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T17:00:24.214Z","priceCents":23,"iy":592.3460169077325,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T17:15:28.711Z","priceCents":25,"iy":530.8293056558772,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T17:45:30.242Z","priceCents":24,"iy":560.3768706163743,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T18:00:24.174Z","priceCents":25,"iy":530.909090909091,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T18:15:38.476Z","priceCents":28,"iy":455.08920648928114,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T18:30:25.589Z","priceCents":25,"iy":530.9631526119023,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T00:00:45.802Z","priceCents":24,"iy":561.086866117473,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T01:15:24.630Z","priceCents":25,"iy":531.6876104647775,"cri":3}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 532%","17 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 1.20)","price drifted 92% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TSM","reason":"Same market on kalshi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x063bcc769a02477cbaa9bafd576934fb9dddced3bb671b0b7bbf8f691d627969","reason":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Lockheed Marti"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x1166beee8722f02d9c79f60252c6eba339e32c699414cbd363c0973d55fc261b","reason":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: OpenAI"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x11c846106277b0b0eccd71a5c7297073c646bf5a19a8ef92b2f9305e97e2be38","reason":"Which companies will the US take a stake in?: Anduril"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20take%20a%20stake%20in%20Taiwan%20Semico","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":120}