{"ticker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL","venue":"kalshi","title":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?","description":"If Jared Polis announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":47,"bestBid":46,"bestAsk":50,"spread":4,"volume":5380.38,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":4383.6,"status":"active","closeTime":"2028-01-01T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":572,"iyYes":74.87409869021612,"iyNo":54.33250782870277,"cri":1.174,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.087,"cvr":null,"overround":13.37,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":4,"bidDepthUsd":7518,"askDepthUsd":1872,"volume24h":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-08T08:44:56.236Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-ABES","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Andy Beshear","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-AOC","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Alexandria Oca","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Abigail Spanbe","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-BOBA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Barack Obama","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-CBOOK","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Cory Booker","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-CHOL","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Chris Van Holl","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Chris Murphy","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-DPHI","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Dean Phillips","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-ESLO","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Elissa Slotkin","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gavin Newsom","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-GWHI","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Gretchen Whitm","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-HBID","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hunter Biden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-HCLI","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Hillary Clinto","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JFET","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: John Fetterman","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JOSS","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Ossoff","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JPRI","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: J.B. Pritzker","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JSHA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Josh Shapiro","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Jon Stewart","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Kamala Harris","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-MCUB","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Cuban","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-MKEL","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mark Kelly","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-MLAN","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mitch Landrieu","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-MOBA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Michelle Obama","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-MSHE","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Mikie Sherrill","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-PBUT","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-PMUR","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Phil Murphy","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-RCOO","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Roy Cooper","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-REMA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-RGAL","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Ruben Gallego","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-RKHA","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Ro Khanna","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-RWAR","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Raphael Warnoc","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-SAS","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Stephen A. Smi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-TWAL","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Tim Walz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"},{"connectedTicker":"KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO","connectedTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Wes Moore","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KX2028DRUN-28","groupLabel":"KX2028DRUN-28"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T13:55:33.700Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.101256414997806,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T14:00:43.215Z","priceCents":50,"iy":60.62710014766436,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T14:40:46.489Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.10461056217614,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T14:55:36.095Z","priceCents":50,"iy":60.63092708840321,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T16:05:37.490Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.110795705929945,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T16:10:40.563Z","priceCents":50,"iy":60.63616473766137,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T17:50:40.233Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.11845018926889,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T00:10:48.148Z","priceCents":52,"iy":65.72564715868513,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:25:36.002Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.151501112708075,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:50:35.707Z","priceCents":52,"iy":65.7468481695357,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T05:50:44.211Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.170928111076584,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T09:10:37.234Z","priceCents":52,"iy":65.76653144679716,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T12:30:21.811Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.20003845984612,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T15:45:22.537Z","priceCents":50,"iy":60.73534697354934,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T04:00:20.057Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.26803193290347,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T10:15:55.036Z","priceCents":50,"iy":60.81336627807203,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-13T11:51:54.521Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.51417318006817,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-13T17:30:41.168Z","priceCents":50,"iy":61.0475083417657,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-13T17:36:25.349Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.539668465267674,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-13T23:50:47.710Z","priceCents":52,"iy":66.16401536511104,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T03:00:51.737Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.58135481125048,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T03:05:42.855Z","priceCents":52,"iy":66.17896465694612,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T05:35:44.290Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.592742986794846,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T07:51:08.761Z","priceCents":48,"iy":66.20090250874216,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T09:10:57.092Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.60871458867151,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T10:36:22.246Z","priceCents":50,"iy":61.12029310948235,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T10:40:53.720Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.6153185276924,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T14:41:00.565Z","priceCents":51,"iy":63.63311338005596,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T14:55:55.761Z","priceCents":50,"iy":61.13872124595689,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-14T15:01:50.738Z","priceCents":52,"iy":66.2340584601761,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T15:40:43.773Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.74426301632854,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T16:16:23.533Z","priceCents":50,"iy":61.24705720475143,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T22:25:40.335Z","priceCents":48,"iy":66.37949317123588,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-15T22:30:39.333Z","priceCents":49,"iy":63.774760769275396,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-16T01:40:48.044Z","priceCents":50,"iy":61.28737060389049,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-18T02:15:47.656Z","priceCents":49,"iy":64.00642244190674,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T07:15:53.958Z","priceCents":48,"iy":66.98321706910241,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T07:45:54.246Z","priceCents":49,"iy":64.35665180707359,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T08:16:06.628Z","priceCents":48,"iy":66.98798310406362,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T09:16:08.427Z","priceCents":49,"iy":64.36341197102757,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T08:15:29.490Z","priceCents":48,"iy":67.21561068038349,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T08:30:33.855Z","priceCents":49,"iy":64.57884290949283,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T06:45:34.493Z","priceCents":48,"iy":67.4377739082187,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T07:15:38.305Z","priceCents":47,"iy":70.560641409179,"cri":1.128},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-04T01:30:25.628Z","priceCents":46,"iy":74.31607717289126,"cri":1.174}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["34 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 42c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KX2028DRUN-28-JPOL","marketTitle":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":42},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KX2028DRUN-28-ABES","reason":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KX2028DRUN-28-AOC","reason":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA","reason":"Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20run%20for%20the%20Democratic%20presidential%20nomination%20in%202","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":230}