{"ticker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON","venue":"kalshi","title":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","description":"If Cristiano Ronaldo wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":6,"bestBid":0,"bestAsk":1,"spread":1,"volume":48031.83,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":27046.98,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":188,"iyYes":3040.0981054101517,"iyNo":12.386094589719947,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1667,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.35,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"observability":"low","eventType":"cultural","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T02:54:52.009Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CPAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Cole Palmer","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DDOU","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Desire Doue","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Declan Rice","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Erling Haaland","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-GDON","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Gianluigi Donnarumma","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Harry Kane","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-JBEL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Jude Bellingham","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KKVA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Kylian Mbappe","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LDIA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Luis Diaz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lautaro Martinez","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lionel Messi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lamine Yamal","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MRAS","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Marcus Rashford","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MSAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Mohamed Salah","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-NMEN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Nuno Mendes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Ousmane Dembele","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PEDR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Pedri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PFOD","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Phil Foden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RAPH","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Raphinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RCHE","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rayan Cherki","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RODR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rodri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-SMCT","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Scott McTominay","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-TREI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Tijjani Reijnders","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vitinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vinicius Junior","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-29T04:01:46.121Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3210.053693760414,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T00:01:29.175Z","priceCents":25,"iy":511.1877763098311,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T22:46:57.249Z","priceCents":2,"iy":8386.555252323476,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T13:01:20.531Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2688.892546179829,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T14:45:28.505Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2281.0185256738055,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T01:45:28.289Z","priceCents":1,"iy":17034.044519030424,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T02:45:41.293Z","priceCents":2,"iy":8472.568962495205,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-05T11:45:24.951Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3322.6650312862325,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-05T17:45:43.291Z","priceCents":1,"iy":17333.595563827545,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T02:45:28.963Z","priceCents":2,"iy":8678.121042442004,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T07:30:41.852Z","priceCents":1,"iy":18076.990419970483,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-17T01:02:41.382Z","priceCents":2,"iy":9071.128603599036,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T02:15:56.078Z","priceCents":6,"iy":3023.765332543682,"cri":15.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["IY 3040%","30 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 15.7","illiquid (LAS 0.17)"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 5c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON","marketTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":5},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Ballon%20d'Or%20in%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":150}