{"ticker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN","venue":"kalshi","title":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","description":"If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":21,"bestBid":20,"bestAsk":27,"spread":7,"volume":123049.49,"volume24h":57.46,"openInterest":57268.53,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":188,"iyYes":613.6038676066706,"iyNo":61.1904133901389,"cri":3.167,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.125,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.14,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":7,"observability":"low","eventType":"sports","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-25T20:31:24.972Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CPAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Cole Palmer","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Cristiano Ronaldo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DDOU","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Desire Doue","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Declan Rice","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Erling Haaland","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-GDON","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Gianluigi Donnarumma","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-JBEL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Jude Bellingham","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KKVA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Kylian Mbappe","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LDIA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Luis Diaz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lautaro Martinez","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lionel Messi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lamine Yamal","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MRAS","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Marcus Rashford","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MSAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Mohamed Salah","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-NMEN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Nuno Mendes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Ousmane Dembele","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PEDR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Pedri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PFOD","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Phil Foden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RAPH","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Raphinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RCHE","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rayan Cherki","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RODR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rodri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-SMCT","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Scott McTominay","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-TREI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Tijjani Reijnders","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vitinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vinicius Junior","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T03:31:39.554Z","priceCents":30,"iy":445.75641636266255,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T03:45:55.106Z","priceCents":29,"iy":467.73934167063896,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T04:01:17.391Z","priceCents":30,"iy":445.80541596873263,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T04:15:56.119Z","priceCents":29,"iy":467.79076043300665,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T05:45:56.002Z","priceCents":30,"iy":445.97583177547256,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T06:16:14.883Z","priceCents":29,"iy":467.9965485818883,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T07:02:37.731Z","priceCents":28,"iy":491.6200114037884,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T08:01:40.932Z","priceCents":32,"iy":406.35658264919596,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T08:16:38.890Z","priceCents":28,"iy":491.75137589340443,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T09:16:40.821Z","priceCents":32,"iy":406.467317538426,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T13:30:57.853Z","priceCents":29,"iy":468.7379039755631,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T15:02:37.526Z","priceCents":30,"iy":446.8791047725989,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T16:00:57.885Z","priceCents":25,"iy":574.6824813687415,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T16:16:17.903Z","priceCents":27,"iy":517.9509010926635,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T16:30:56.413Z","priceCents":26,"iy":545.2716809589351,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T17:45:58.445Z","priceCents":29,"iy":469.1734996903255,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:02:02.336Z","priceCents":28,"iy":492.8022370371259,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:16:02.122Z","priceCents":29,"iy":469.2227704585384,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T19:16:55.376Z","priceCents":28,"iy":492.93682305593813,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T20:16:44.041Z","priceCents":29,"iy":469.4298207399402,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T00:30:57.928Z","priceCents":28,"iy":493.5018500685795,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T01:16:00.824Z","priceCents":27,"iy":518.9723393294164,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T03:01:20.973Z","priceCents":28,"iy":493.77186086606224,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T09:30:56.814Z","priceCents":26,"iy":547.3055586062735,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T11:30:56.187Z","priceCents":25,"iy":577.1420138303255,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T14:01:27.063Z","priceCents":22,"iy":682.4546120939491,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T14:15:54.740Z","priceCents":25,"iy":577.4920495957556,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T14:31:19.214Z","priceCents":24,"iy":609.6070913083303,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T14:46:55.362Z","priceCents":23,"iy":644.5190312561344,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T15:02:00.691Z","priceCents":22,"iy":682.6058038996044,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T15:15:56.908Z","priceCents":25,"iy":577.616947650497,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T15:31:34.915Z","priceCents":24,"iy":609.7421586367097,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T15:45:57.405Z","priceCents":23,"iy":644.6584411262038,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T16:02:07.439Z","priceCents":25,"iy":577.7175146012166,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T16:15:57.772Z","priceCents":22,"iy":682.7894840346695,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T16:31:09.655Z","priceCents":23,"iy":644.7672907408388,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:01:28.076Z","priceCents":22,"iy":682.9047847950422,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:15:56.246Z","priceCents":24,"iy":609.9770609924288,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T19:31:01.891Z","priceCents":25,"iy":578.1598149888592,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T22:31:09.159Z","priceCents":24,"iy":610.6828552659618,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T02:15:56.078Z","priceCents":23,"iy":646.1515187951808,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T02:31:22.574Z","priceCents":24,"iy":611.2189300716188,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T11:30:59.162Z","priceCents":21,"iy":727.5524766305149,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T12:16:31.103Z","priceCents":23,"iy":647.5794514664489,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T13:00:57.243Z","priceCents":25,"iy":580.3938197333899,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T13:46:00.608Z","priceCents":24,"iy":612.7386013832785,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T14:01:51.965Z","priceCents":25,"iy":580.5230539223743,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T14:15:57.040Z","priceCents":24,"iy":612.8068231422719,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T14:31:25.706Z","priceCents":23,"iy":647.9022076855656,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T15:15:55.738Z","priceCents":24,"iy":612.9400617977926,"cri":3.167}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["IY 614%","30 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 19c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN","marketTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":19},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Ballon%20d'Or%20in%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":352}