{"ticker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA","venue":"kalshi","title":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","description":"If Kylian Mbappe wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":20,"bestBid":20,"bestAsk":21,"spread":1,"volume":55374.57,"volume24h":358.96,"openInterest":27853.4,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":188,"iyYes":775.078569608426,"iyNo":48.44241060052663,"cri":4,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.05,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.14,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.409,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"observability":"medium","eventType":"sports","asPrior":0.3},"computedAt":"2026-06-25T20:24:07.073Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CPAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Cole Palmer","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Cristiano Ronaldo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DDOU","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Desire Doue","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Declan Rice","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Erling Haaland","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-GDON","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Gianluigi Donnarumma","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Harry Kane","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-JBEL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Jude Bellingham","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KKVA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LDIA","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Luis Diaz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMAR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lautaro Martinez","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lionel Messi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Lamine Yamal","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Michael Olise","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MRAS","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Marcus Rashford","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-MSAL","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Mohamed Salah","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-NMEN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Nuno Mendes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Ousmane Dembele","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PEDR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Pedri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-PFOD","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Phil Foden","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RAPH","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Raphinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RCHE","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rayan Cherki","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-RODR","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Rodri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-SMCT","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Scott McTominay","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-TREI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Tijjani Reijnders","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vitinha","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN","connectedTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Vinicius Junior","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBALLONDOR-26","groupLabel":"KXBALLONDOR-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T12:01:27.580Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2189.539244785011,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T14:16:43.990Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2530.7707276049714,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T14:30:56.365Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2190.727702593383,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T16:31:50.353Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2532.012862580586,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T17:02:02.401Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2191.9288974297383,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T17:30:55.789Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3621.826006120807,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T17:47:04.380Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2532.7005250438524,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T18:00:56.322Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2192.39829308931,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T18:16:54.721Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3622.4313905748872,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T19:16:11.435Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2192.9939134296387,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T20:01:26.398Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2533.9445555463485,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T21:16:22.078Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2193.9567533098825,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T21:46:21.088Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1543.743762771468,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T01:30:54.786Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2195.9768761934656,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T03:02:04.146Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1931.4089603652671,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T04:15:56.119Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2197.298853583207,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T05:01:54.847Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1932.2482725240875,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T05:15:55.052Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2197.782059605839,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T08:16:38.890Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1933.614978049992,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T09:16:40.821Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1547.6188774725101,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T16:00:57.885Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1281.9839968995002,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T16:16:17.903Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1176.7925561029008,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T17:31:23.969Z","priceCents":15,"iy":1085.8646842854994,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T17:45:58.445Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1177.1817990218026,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:31:50.603Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1282.684107885225,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T22:01:05.351Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1726.312470439855,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T22:16:15.308Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4603.741854109733,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T22:30:59.673Z","priceCents":6,"iy":3005.394117451258,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T23:00:58.812Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2548.915218627017,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T03:01:20.973Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2208.2574888732233,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T03:45:58.075Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2551.5707437928313,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T09:30:56.814Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1944.331759252918,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T10:00:57.502Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1730.8604246799096,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T11:00:57.786Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1181.6361915703676,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T11:16:05.453Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1009.9452929829555,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T11:30:56.187Z","priceCents":17,"iy":939.2703362336669,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T16:02:07.439Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1011.0056505521293,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:15:56.246Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1289.1013191823797,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:31:26.066Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1412.6604636270717,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:45:56.713Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1183.3949221462613,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T18:15:59.466Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1412.8841663719493,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T18:31:35.171Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1183.5885772201993,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T18:45:56.590Z","priceCents":17,"iy":940.7678056493891,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T21:01:21.407Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1012.1110007816958,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T21:31:30.547Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1290.3065895232223,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T22:02:31.393Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1012.3409178557656,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T22:31:09.159Z","priceCents":15,"iy":1092.8008988969846,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T23:31:01.869Z","priceCents":17,"iy":941.7521844174285,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T14:01:51.965Z","priceCents":19,"iy":824.9538134686371,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T19:47:11.908Z","priceCents":20,"iy":775.0168539624063,"cri":4}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 775%","30 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 18c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA","marketTitle":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":18},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bradley Barcola"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bruno Fernandes"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBALLONDOR-26-BSAK","reason":"Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?: Bukayo Saka"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Ballon%20d'Or%20in%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":188}