{"ticker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?","description":"If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is on the official ballot for the next Brazilian Presidential election first round, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":88,"bestBid":84,"bestAsk":88,"spread":4,"volume":60906.73,"volume24h":1198.38,"openInterest":35081.49,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-10-04T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":101,"iyYes":69.09610463611202,"iyNo":1904.4613840328366,"cri":5.25,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0476,"cvr":null,"overround":1.52,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":4},"computedAt":"2026-06-25T23:11:42.976Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL","connectedTitle":"Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elect","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL","connectedTitle":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential electi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-JB","connectedTitle":"Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-RJUN","connectedTitle":"Will Ratinho Júnior be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-RSAN","connectedTitle":"Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?:","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRBALLOT-26-TFRI","connectedTitle":"Will Tarcisio de Frietas be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential ele","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRBALLOT-26","groupLabel":"KXBRBALLOT-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T16:31:12.281Z","priceCents":76,"iy":980.3921568627453,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T06:30:44.154Z","priceCents":77,"iy":1059.6958874524166,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T07:15:33.598Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1002.6225772966345,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T09:02:36.472Z","priceCents":77,"iy":1060.661697413465,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T00:15:53.123Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1008.827054894157,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T16:31:04.360Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1205.5799096494477,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T16:45:36.317Z","priceCents":78,"iy":1136.313745524792,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T18:16:55.039Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1206.353111081547,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T20:16:04.971Z","priceCents":78,"iy":1137.7723640008346,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T22:15:34.089Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1208.115047243646,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T23:15:34.302Z","priceCents":78,"iy":1139.0241599546791,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T23:31:55.709Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1208.6786775835483,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T00:45:36.964Z","priceCents":78,"iy":1139.646073244777,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T01:31:06.913Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1209.562401422867,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T02:30:36.440Z","priceCents":80,"iy":1286.581658280387,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T17:15:33.491Z","priceCents":81,"iy":1391.0218046725913,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T17:30:56.690Z","priceCents":80,"iy":1305.2729450891345,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T22:00:52.856Z","priceCents":81,"iy":1393.4882879112245,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T22:16:07.050Z","priceCents":80,"iy":1307.5993014195517,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T23:30:33.007Z","priceCents":81,"iy":1394.2624203244936,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T01:30:51.673Z","priceCents":80,"iy":1309.1822094691538,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T02:00:48.848Z","priceCents":81,"iy":1395.575414648515,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T04:15:39.684Z","priceCents":82,"iy":1492.5388020194398,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T05:15:30.051Z","priceCents":83,"iy":1600.2108612562508,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T05:30:42.927Z","priceCents":82,"iy":1493.2357865705565,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T05:45:37.274Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1721.0332037038697,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T15:31:37.741Z","priceCents":83,"iy":1606.3846033112884,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T16:31:19.176Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1727.9859326389826,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T21:00:28.120Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1868.2781129939417,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T21:30:28.987Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1731.2331168068517,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T22:31:04.938Z","priceCents":83,"iy":1610.609447810033,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T23:15:30.421Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1732.375648652069,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T00:30:43.542Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1870.7452228915297,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T01:15:28.511Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1733.676525137744,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T01:30:41.153Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1871.4561467004462,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T11:45:31.343Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1740.5738784482207,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T18:01:49.261Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1883.1791584723333,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T20:01:15.483Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1746.0295765792853,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T20:15:33.126Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1884.7750875562315,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-17T04:45:42.792Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1751.8398317868077,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-17T14:45:47.554Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1898.1107603455446,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T01:16:15.949Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1765.6408366350313,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T04:31:03.701Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1908.1445946153729,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T04:45:38.588Z","priceCents":86,"iy":2068.6837266622288,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T07:15:40.321Z","priceCents":85,"iy":1910.1535203159679,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T09:15:41.243Z","priceCents":86,"iy":2072.278212097245,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-20T03:00:34.082Z","priceCents":87,"iy":2294.512678889616,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T00:45:55.086Z","priceCents":86,"iy":2124.227015511797,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T05:30:55.424Z","priceCents":83,"iy":1758.2520902277276,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T21:46:05.572Z","priceCents":84,"iy":1903.3831300409229,"cri":5.25}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["tight LAS 0.048","6 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 5.3"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 79c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA","marketTitle":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":79},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL","reason":"Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilia"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL","reason":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRBALLOT-26-JB","reason":"Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian p"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Luiz%20In%C3%A1cio%20Lula%20da%20Silva%20be%20on%20the%20ballot%20in%20the%20next%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":158}