{"ticker":"KXBRPRES-26-FBOL","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","description":"If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":42,"bestBid":41,"bestAsk":42,"spread":1,"volume":255487.34,"volume24h":1121.95,"openInterest":120414.33,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-10-25T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":552,"iyYes":95.2167036671364,"iyNo":45.980832767726575,"cri":1.439,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0244,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.06,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T22:59:30.141Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-LULA","connectedTitle":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Lu","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-JB","connectedTitle":"Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Jair Bolsonar","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-FH","connectedTitle":"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Fernando Had","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-RSAN","connectedTitle":"Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-RZEM","connectedTitle":"Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Romeu Zema","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-RCAI","connectedTitle":"Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Ronaldo Caiad","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBRPRES-26-CGOM","connectedTitle":"Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?: Ciro Gomes","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBRPRES-26","groupLabel":"KXBRPRES-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T04:52:53.510Z","priceCents":41,"iy":92.90104043988549,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T14:08:00.362Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.21291536682143,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T16:37:45.854Z","priceCents":41,"iy":92.98162517286987,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T15:55:38.926Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.70095726217595,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T03:10:14.060Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.17621293796353,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T05:10:14.006Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.78916130730984,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T05:15:37.477Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.18956849785978,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T06:30:36.069Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.79811923629268,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T06:35:44.558Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.19801380386305,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T08:45:24.191Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.81315977884158,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T08:50:33.241Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.21245143168404,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T10:05:25.275Z","priceCents":42,"iy":89.82196243295068,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T11:50:48.174Z","priceCents":44,"iy":82.79339402688599,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T20:50:34.870Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.44349522566407,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T00:05:34.161Z","priceCents":42,"iy":90.07622141781931,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T02:10:43.953Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.47779495048653,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T07:55:34.158Z","priceCents":44,"iy":83.21414386406425,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T08:00:34.688Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.67034649392309,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T14:25:39.891Z","priceCents":44,"iy":83.25455920539635,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T23:10:10.903Z","priceCents":45,"iy":80.00299687440346,"cri":1.222},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T03:05:55.243Z","priceCents":44,"iy":83.33341487287824,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T11:30:26.166Z","priceCents":43,"iy":86.84863316406373,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T15:35:24.349Z","priceCents":42,"iy":90.50401287183385,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T07:10:27.927Z","priceCents":43,"iy":87.13328842580114,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:40:55.669Z","priceCents":42,"iy":90.85131155047614,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T19:56:06.139Z","priceCents":41,"iy":94.6806781466751,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T23:40:59.908Z","priceCents":40,"iy":98.72033206093793,"cri":1.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T12:25:54.612Z","priceCents":42,"iy":90.9726510513422,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T14:35:22.477Z","priceCents":41,"iy":94.81364726549474,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T16:20:16.835Z","priceCents":42,"iy":90.99925782088545,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:00:51.826Z","priceCents":41,"iy":95.0669417390845,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:15:32.794Z","priceCents":42,"iy":91.23215467595176,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:40:57.295Z","priceCents":41,"iy":95.1506400101129,"cri":1.439}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["tight LAS 0.024","7 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 38c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBRPRES-26-FBOL","marketTitle":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":38},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRPRES-26-LULA","reason":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presid"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRPRES-26-JB","reason":"Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential elec"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBRPRES-26-FH","reason":"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Fl%C3%A1vio%20Bolsonaro%20win%20the%202026%20Brazilian%20presidential%20el","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":3229}