{"ticker":"KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?","description":"If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":17,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":17,"spread":1,"volume":933980.57,"volume24h":8213.97,"openInterest":391998.12,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":25,"edge":12,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-04T06:05:00.896Z","firstDetectedPrice":8}],"indicators":{"tauDays":254,"iyYes":753.6724941495743,"iyNo":27.344126771866645,"cri":5.25,"ee":11,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0625,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.1,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":8027,"askDepthUsd":18638,"volume24h":8213.97,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":12,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T23:01:46.156Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMAX100-26-APR","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by May 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before May 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMAX100-26","groupLabel":"KXBTCMAX100-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before June 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMAX100-26","groupLabel":"KXBTCMAX100-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMAX100-26","groupLabel":"KXBTCMAX100-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMAX100-26","groupLabel":"KXBTCMAX100-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":165.09999999999945,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T01:01:00.217Z","priceCents":13,"iy":949.8504108989165,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T02:10:50.722Z","priceCents":14,"iy":872.0321321199518,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T12:45:56.804Z","priceCents":15,"iy":805.8148534858473,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T16:10:17.234Z","priceCents":16,"iy":746.97409710176,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T16:15:16.976Z","priceCents":15,"iy":806.270327302873,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T16:25:31.992Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.0061280815829,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T18:05:35.265Z","priceCents":15,"iy":806.5124089830275,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T18:10:19.544Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.2187669379335,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T18:40:18.602Z","priceCents":17,"iy":694.9494300703551,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T20:20:17.902Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.4810911176038,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T20:25:37.475Z","priceCents":15,"iy":806.8175760105374,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T20:30:19.556Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.5015018295014,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T20:50:17.862Z","priceCents":14,"iy":874.675375338557,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T20:55:18.297Z","priceCents":15,"iy":806.8805257662115,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T21:00:17.397Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.5627406537589,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T22:10:18.128Z","priceCents":15,"iy":807.0442411117831,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T22:25:18.456Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.7348462973223,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T22:55:17.384Z","priceCents":17,"iy":695.4294480569639,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T23:00:33.908Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.8048780487804,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T23:05:19.714Z","priceCents":17,"iy":695.4484454506262,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T23:20:36.293Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.84573596216,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T00:10:17.128Z","priceCents":15,"iy":807.3088447481989,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T00:30:17.753Z","priceCents":16,"iy":747.9887738253697,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T01:55:19.372Z","priceCents":15,"iy":807.5389388639015,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T02:00:17.708Z","priceCents":16,"iy":748.1698389458272,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T14:10:38.388Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.1501120161073,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T14:20:31.395Z","priceCents":16,"iy":749.6743097910497,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T15:00:31.206Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.260918501361,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T15:32:20.294Z","priceCents":13,"iy":955.815757369985,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T15:40:31.138Z","priceCents":14,"iy":877.3621557562391,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T15:45:31.177Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.3590867351198,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T16:00:30.837Z","priceCents":16,"iy":749.8796670592977,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T16:45:32.253Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.4921268573964,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T17:30:31.760Z","priceCents":16,"iy":750.0616489026495,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T19:30:31.510Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.8566273158572,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T19:35:44.412Z","priceCents":16,"iy":750.3171595038216,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T19:40:31.030Z","priceCents":17,"iy":697.7821376525268,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T20:10:31.745Z","priceCents":15,"iy":809.9422532710964,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T20:15:51.986Z","priceCents":17,"iy":697.8504501532759,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T06:30:47.670Z","priceCents":16,"iy":751.656291554384,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T06:40:46.767Z","priceCents":17,"iy":699.0384903814426,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T15:15:36.364Z","priceCents":16,"iy":752.7340005970806,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:45:27.337Z","priceCents":17,"iy":700.1920645669765,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T16:50:47.342Z","priceCents":16,"iy":752.9292040266241,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:25:27.357Z","priceCents":15,"iy":812.7621337985923,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T17:30:43.738Z","priceCents":16,"iy":753.0090891586339,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T18:30:29.219Z","priceCents":15,"iy":812.9058797790154,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T18:45:28.654Z","priceCents":16,"iy":753.1629897770284,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T19:55:30.691Z","priceCents":15,"iy":813.0944237840275,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T20:20:30.445Z","priceCents":16,"iy":753.3584157948743,"cri":5.25}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["+12c executable edge (yes)","IY 754%","4 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 5.3","price drifted 113% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 15c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE","marketTitle":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by July 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":15},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMAX100-26-APR","reason":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by May 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?:"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY","reason":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP","reason":"Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20be%20above%20%24100000%20by%20July%201%2C%202026%20at%2012%3A00AM%20ET%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2634}