{"ticker":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?","description":"If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":23,"bestBid":22,"bestAsk":23,"spread":1,"volume":353055.95,"volume24h":2850.86,"openInterest":172277.42,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":14,"edge":16,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:00:54.507Z","firstDetectedPrice":32}],"indicators":{"tauDays":254,"iyYes":509.2039462858696,"iyNo":40.508663708474835,"cri":3.545,"ee":15,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0455,"cvr":null,"overround":0.88,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":6236,"askDepthUsd":6214,"volume24h":2850.86,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":16,"sfEdgeDirection":"no"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T01:48:23.066Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-60000.00","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $60,000.00","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMINY-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $55,000.00","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMINY-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $50,000.00","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMINY-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-45000.00","connectedTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $45,000.00","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXBTCMINY-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T06:10:41.037Z","priceCents":26,"iy":396.5803351948088,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T11:46:15.104Z","priceCents":27,"iy":377.0668627499261,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T14:11:04.908Z","priceCents":25,"iy":418.55078225038886,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T14:20:51.924Z","priceCents":22,"iy":494.6622692053886,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T14:25:51.987Z","priceCents":24,"iy":441.82049155157677,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T15:26:08.538Z","priceCents":25,"iy":418.6339915508574,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T19:40:43.792Z","priceCents":26,"iy":397.43452409680395,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T21:10:48.777Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.29557462071637,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T22:10:14.676Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.08261094207467,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T22:20:13.477Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.37682978793976,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T22:25:12.882Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.10025490481263,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T22:55:30.843Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.4191620128127,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T23:05:14.483Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.1451735146185,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T23:10:13.673Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.4360971713437,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T23:15:20.710Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.1564046715843,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T23:20:13.940Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.4479525537573,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T23:25:14.825Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.16763643045255,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T00:10:13.943Z","priceCents":23,"iy":467.82229843650305,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T00:15:26.326Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.51232143176196,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T01:10:39.637Z","priceCents":23,"iy":467.8975343523027,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T02:05:49.737Z","priceCents":24,"iy":442.6428105488771,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T02:51:03.070Z","priceCents":25,"iy":419.395610708951,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T09:25:32.295Z","priceCents":24,"iy":443.1604400548024,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T13:00:34.496Z","priceCents":25,"iy":420.07780071048774,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T13:15:33.580Z","priceCents":24,"iy":443.43246782477036,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T13:20:31.252Z","priceCents":25,"iy":420.10036370332864,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T18:10:41.131Z","priceCents":24,"iy":443.78149184811474,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T18:40:34.122Z","priceCents":25,"iy":420.4584725262067,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T01:50:13.845Z","priceCents":24,"iy":444.3257013106167,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T02:05:26.835Z","priceCents":25,"iy":420.95793880540214,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T03:11:08.272Z","priceCents":24,"iy":444.4213742649584,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T17:50:19.028Z","priceCents":25,"iy":423.6550403342813,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T04:10:16.610Z","priceCents":24,"iy":447.9366494209442,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T16:30:31.057Z","priceCents":23,"iy":478.22343524543294,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T18:10:32.743Z","priceCents":21,"iy":537.5180516401339,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T19:16:04.784Z","priceCents":22,"iy":506.6799171088029,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T21:50:33.710Z","priceCents":21,"iy":537.8401860160433,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T00:55:49.438Z","priceCents":20,"iy":572.1675745581377,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T02:45:32.462Z","priceCents":21,"iy":538.2724097075334,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T05:05:34.463Z","priceCents":20,"iy":572.5580009098181,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T05:20:32.582Z","priceCents":21,"iy":538.4982854334114,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T06:20:46.387Z","priceCents":20,"iy":572.6747834818627,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T08:05:46.304Z","priceCents":19,"iy":610.52557237934,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T12:50:26.348Z","priceCents":18,"iy":652.9069739539638,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T12:55:25.483Z","priceCents":19,"iy":611.0074337687782,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:00:47.631Z","priceCents":20,"iy":573.299930104529,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:10:24.510Z","priceCents":19,"iy":611.0338262456648,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:30:27.367Z","priceCents":20,"iy":573.3449573132899,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T13:45:24.478Z","priceCents":21,"iy":539.2405749780032,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T21:20:27.019Z","priceCents":22,"iy":508.8455479499798,"cri":3.545}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_short","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"16c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+16c executable edge (no)","IY 509%","tight LAS 0.045","4 connected markets"],"warnings":["price shifted 28% since edge was set"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Sell 10 NO contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00","marketTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?","direction":"no","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy NO if price rises to 25c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00","marketTitle":"Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?","direction":"no","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_above","triggerPrice":25},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-60000.00","reason":"Will Bitcoin be below $60000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55000.00","reason":"Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50000.00","reason":"Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20be%20below%20%2440000.00%20by%20Jan%201%2C%202027%20at%2012%3A00am%20ET","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2375}