{"ticker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-MMAH","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Matt Mahan finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?","description":"If Matt Mahan finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":9,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":9,"spread":4,"volume":1769.78,"volume24h":41.78,"openInterest":251.78,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored","thesisSlug":"cali-governor-election","thesisPrice":14,"edge":5,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-14T06:04:44.399Z","firstDetectedPrice":6}],"indicators":{"tauDays":404,"iyYes":1717.5407095535877,"iyNo":4.757730497378361,"cri":19,"ee":6,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.8,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.21,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":4,"bidDepthUsd":3132,"askDepthUsd":1510,"volume24h":41.78,"sfEdgeCents":5,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-24T19:30:59.161Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-ESWA","connectedTitle":"Will Eric Swalwell finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Eri","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-TSTE","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Tom St","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-SHIL","connectedTitle":"Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Stev","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-KPOR","connectedTitle":"Will Katie Porter finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Kati","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-CBIA","connectedTitle":"Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Chad ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-CAHN","connectedTitle":"Will Ché Ahn finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Ché Ahn","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-APAD","connectedTitle":"Will Alex Padilla finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Alex","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-AVIL","connectedTitle":"Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primar","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-BWAR","connectedTitle":"Will Butch Ware finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Butch ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-XBEC","connectedTitle":"Will Xavier Becerra finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Xa","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2","groupLabel":"KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T21:31:01.358Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2825.4809622197163,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T04:05:48.307Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8656.893771875815,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T13:50:40.276Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4288.907114046321,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T20:35:39.333Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2832.0035195072687,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T11:05:24.254Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2105.1569134939114,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T06:25:12.296Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1669.81286538443,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T17:25:33.858Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1378.386608718988,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T17:45:34.215Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1168.9448090689039,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T20:15:35.608Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1378.7787821577747,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T01:00:30.566Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1175.4675812308867,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T12:40:16.021Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1021.1528870832369,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T16:45:32.253Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1700.2341346212777,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 1718%","10 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0","illiquid (LAS 0.80)","price shifted 50% since edge was set"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-ESWA","reason":"Will Eric Swalwell finish 2nd in the 2026 California guberna"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-TSTE","reason":"Will Tom Steyer finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernator"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-SHIL","reason":"Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernat"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Matt%20Mahan%20finish%202nd%20in%20the%202026%20California%20gubernator","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2145}