{"ticker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P82","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 65%?","description":"If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 65% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":30,"bestBid":25,"bestAsk":29,"spread":4,"volume":86,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":76,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-07-08T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":360,"iyYes":303.92521496810866,"iyNo":33.769468329789845,"cri":3,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.16,"cvr":null,"overround":7.57,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":4,"bidDepthUsd":1466,"askDepthUsd":1470,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-07-13T07:11:27.944Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P52","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P55","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P57","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P60","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P62","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P65","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P67","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P70","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P72","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P75","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P77","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P80","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P85","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P87","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P90","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01","groupLabel":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T05:01:22.925Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4894.984317439116,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T13:31:04.421Z","priceCents":55,"iy":122.21552548110002,"cri":1.222},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T15:31:05.146Z","priceCents":56,"iy":127.29469868647317,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T18:16:04.588Z","priceCents":51,"iy":104.13241503628439,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T18:31:43.593Z","priceCents":50,"iy":100.05180764834394,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T19:02:56.951Z","priceCents":51,"iy":104.1415497090582,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T21:31:55.699Z","priceCents":39,"iy":156.54492793730387,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T21:47:21.842Z","priceCents":35,"iy":185.8797951209002,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T22:16:41.740Z","priceCents":36,"iy":177.94597328677492,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T00:01:54.526Z","priceCents":28,"iy":257.4376761802361,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T01:46:27.446Z","priceCents":29,"iy":245.15737324871884,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T06:01:41.846Z","priceCents":30,"iy":233.76114825671826,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T21:31:01.500Z","priceCents":20,"iy":402.5509599186075,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T02:31:00.574Z","priceCents":19,"iy":429.2819513402048,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T02:46:46.007Z","priceCents":20,"iy":402.7941776929273,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T15:46:12.088Z","priceCents":19,"iy":429.936680862648,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T17:46:16.059Z","priceCents":20,"iy":403.48991137040093,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T20:46:00.783Z","priceCents":21,"iy":379.60379027176924,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T22:46:07.082Z","priceCents":23,"iy":337.8977482099715,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-12T02:01:26.299Z","priceCents":24,"iy":319.7334801294978,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-13T04:01:35.061Z","priceCents":25,"iy":303.8155908727693,"cri":3}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 304%","15 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.16)"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 27c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P82","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 65%?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":27},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P52","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P55","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P57","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Reform%20UK%20in%20the%202026%20Clacton","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":133}