{"ticker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P4","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%?","description":"If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":5,"bestBid":0,"bestAsk":4,"spread":4,"volume":24361.25,"volume24h":604.94,"openInterest":12445.96,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-06-21T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":360,"iyYes":1923.8611491013191,"iyNo":5.329255260668476,"cri":19,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.8,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":4,"bidDepthUsd":0,"askDepthUsd":1969,"volume24h":604.94},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T02:52:35.266Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P1","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian pr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P10","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian pr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P13","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian pr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P57","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian pr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P7","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian pr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P1","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P10","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P13","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P4","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P57","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-ICEP-P7","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential ru","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26","groupLabel":"KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":-7.970000000000027,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T07:46:12.483Z","priceCents":18,"iy":455.2312812182494,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T08:15:59.341Z","priceCents":19,"iy":426.0368228965,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T08:30:59.835Z","priceCents":16,"iy":524.6722595200806,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T09:01:02.704Z","priceCents":17,"iy":487.9572253426572,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T09:45:55.350Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.00916766031673,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T11:00:55.767Z","priceCents":18,"iy":455.4008440359379,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T11:16:06.673Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.0730177684883,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T11:30:59.893Z","priceCents":20,"iy":399.88715513156563,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T12:01:54.168Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.1059811481361,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T13:46:09.297Z","priceCents":22,"iy":354.53574123747546,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T14:01:15.746Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.1915068521388,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T14:15:55.024Z","priceCents":22,"iy":354.55613979898277,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T14:31:16.213Z","priceCents":23,"iy":334.8027885897589,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T14:45:55.770Z","priceCents":24,"iy":316.69443165793535,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T15:01:11.546Z","priceCents":22,"iy":354.58625625165337,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T15:16:04.824Z","priceCents":24,"iy":316.71265507959606,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T15:45:55.620Z","priceCents":25,"iy":300.0608342513277,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T16:01:19.804Z","priceCents":24,"iy":316.73956015448306,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T16:30:56.989Z","priceCents":25,"iy":300.08632620342837,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T17:46:02.984Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.35235926007573,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T18:01:56.532Z","priceCents":18,"iy":455.7653324757089,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T18:15:54.514Z","priceCents":24,"iy":316.82117123784565,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T18:45:54.563Z","priceCents":20,"iy":400.2182011562469,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T19:31:06.626Z","priceCents":18,"iy":455.84279896312154,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T20:30:56.201Z","priceCents":19,"iy":426.6325495310072,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T21:16:05.107Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.5030252772132,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T21:30:57.195Z","priceCents":19,"iy":426.6816836297832,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T21:46:12.589Z","priceCents":21,"iy":376.5247063407623,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T22:01:55.232Z","priceCents":11,"iy":809.8341815589151,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T22:16:02.251Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9909.339212847177,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T00:01:11.974Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1012.2675921684653,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T00:15:56.658Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9911.622395576182,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T00:30:58.449Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1330.1676297271008,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T00:45:56.035Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4906.035095226732,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T01:01:05.332Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9912.465264538147,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T11:31:07.727Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2405.9126126398296,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T12:45:56.115Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9925.807098455987,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T13:01:52.564Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2406.3289748379298,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T13:15:56.867Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9926.352426029653,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T01:00:56.068Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4919.66518219403,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T01:16:47.473Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9940.032459494403,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T15:30:59.510Z","priceCents":3,"iy":3251.712188800444,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:02:02.336Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9959.154650085991,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:16:02.122Z","priceCents":3,"iy":3252.7428509480314,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T18:31:50.603Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9959.73109966346,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T16:31:09.655Z","priceCents":3,"iy":3261.0748053072493,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T19:31:01.891Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9988.390413798825,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T20:00:58.040Z","priceCents":3,"iy":3262.390958003109,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T23:16:58.357Z","priceCents":1,"iy":9992.72703138438,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T23:30:59.278Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1923.16758318705,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 1924%","11 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0","illiquid (LAS 0.80)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P1","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in t"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P10","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in t"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCOLOMBIAN2RMOV-COLOMBIAPRES26-AESP-P13","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in t"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Abelardo%20de%20la%20Espriella%20in%20t","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":129}