{"ticker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?","description":"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":86,"bestBid":85,"bestAsk":86,"spread":1,"volume":17785.11,"volume24h":972.92,"openInterest":5849.78,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-06-10T12:25:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","thesisPrice":45,"edge":-40,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-11T06:04:14.568Z","firstDetectedPrice":28},{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":55,"edge":-30,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-11T06:04:33.134Z","firstDetectedPrice":28}],"indicators":{"tauDays":16,"iyYes":391.08539590699684,"iyNo":12558.18660190245,"cri":5.667,"ee":-41,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0118,"cvr":null,"overround":6.32,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.635,"label":"taker","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":1155,"askDepthUsd":6286,"volume24h":972.92,"observability":"high","eventType":"data_release","asPrior":0.65,"sfEdgeCents":-40,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-05-25T01:26:20.716Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.1","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in May 2026?: Above -0.1%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.2","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026?: Above -0.2%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.3","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?: Above -0.3%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.0","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in May 2026?: Above 0.0%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.1","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in May 2026?: Above 0.1%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.2","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in May 2026?: Above 0.2%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.3","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?: Above 0.3%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.7","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in May 2026?: Above 0.7%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.8","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in May 2026?: Above 0.8%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.9","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in May 2026?: Above 0.9%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"},{"connectedTicker":"KXCPI-26MAY-T1.0","connectedTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in May 2026?: Above 1.0%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXCPI-26MAY","groupLabel":"KXCPI-26MAY"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":-2,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T13:02:11.391Z","priceCents":85,"iy":9861.415721051459,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T17:15:43.193Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9213.626310222135,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T23:16:15.719Z","priceCents":86,"iy":10911.732806807753,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T23:30:53.969Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10070.7631382478,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T23:46:12.342Z","priceCents":91,"iy":17979.03032861868,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T00:16:05.183Z","priceCents":92,"iy":20469.618648200536,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T01:15:52.634Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10106.686212232265,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T01:31:13.237Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9368.583162217656,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T02:01:24.983Z","priceCents":86,"iy":10973.145681705362,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T02:15:53.437Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10127.470662161943,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T02:31:13.908Z","priceCents":86,"iy":10984.434926233867,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T05:30:54.607Z","priceCents":87,"iy":12040.084324193156,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T06:00:54.865Z","priceCents":88,"iy":13207.019621387806,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T06:16:01.785Z","priceCents":89,"iy":14579.294126095076,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T07:01:01.096Z","priceCents":87,"iy":12077.58866596938,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T07:15:53.958Z","priceCents":88,"iy":13240.992662214529,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T07:45:54.246Z","priceCents":89,"iy":14624.055750132806,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T11:30:59.551Z","priceCents":90,"iy":16393.851681804575,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T12:16:51.654Z","priceCents":89,"iy":14761.480646715077,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T14:00:49.268Z","priceCents":86,"iy":11248.39641370018,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T16:01:09.136Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10419.815281276238,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T17:15:47.515Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9679.007980604101,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T17:31:02.423Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10452.99102104075,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T18:01:43.228Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9694.677729434381,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T18:31:34.344Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10475.225795560056,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T19:15:48.094Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9719.756530560488,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T22:46:29.142Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10569.978195693646,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T23:31:03.205Z","priceCents":86,"iy":11476.392778537427,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T03:46:11.755Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10683.539944903581,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T08:15:45.851Z","priceCents":84,"iy":9994.523548740417,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T10:15:23.720Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10834.642919504102,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T11:15:23.090Z","priceCents":84,"iy":10060.111297774043,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T12:16:00.034Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10882.528324388788,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T12:46:39.769Z","priceCents":84,"iy":10093.494864366603,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T13:15:41.102Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10906.055013621582,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T14:00:24.162Z","priceCents":88,"iy":14136.82616809267,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T14:15:35.770Z","priceCents":84,"iy":10126.565555144532,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T15:45:37.439Z","priceCents":85,"iy":10966.191258858666,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T18:30:26.426Z","priceCents":86,"iy":12634.637986830028,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T18:45:31.948Z","priceCents":85,"iy":11661.780183431061,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T02:15:34.518Z","priceCents":86,"iy":12868.867916793073,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T02:45:34.330Z","priceCents":85,"iy":11885.60701835038,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T03:00:27.152Z","priceCents":86,"iy":12891.805756341173,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T03:45:33.631Z","priceCents":85,"iy":11913.676247527983,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T04:00:51.308Z","priceCents":86,"iy":12923.01358583779,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T06:01:31.864Z","priceCents":85,"iy":11979.226997181358,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T06:30:36.963Z","priceCents":84,"iy":11111.272179056012,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T10:30:35.658Z","priceCents":85,"iy":12110.388976716044,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T12:45:31.994Z","priceCents":84,"iy":11281.349346520661,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T21:45:44.899Z","priceCents":85,"iy":12451.588304938494,"cri":5.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["+40c executable edge (yes)","IY 391%","tight LAS 0.012","13 connected markets"],"warnings":["taker regime","cliff risk 5.7","price drifted 207% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 77c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXCPI-26MAY-T0.4","marketTitle":"Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":77},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.1","reason":"Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in May 2026?: Above -0.1%"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.2","reason":"Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026?: Above -0.2%"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCPI-26MAY-T-0.3","reason":"Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026?: Above -0.3%"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CPI%20rise%20more%20than%200.4%25%20in%20May%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":247}