{"ticker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-248","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?","description":"If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":5,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":5,"spread":0,"volume":53717.47,"volume24h":29.15,"openInterest":38652.66,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-02-01T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":10,"edge":5,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-07-30T06:07:20.260Z","firstDetectedPrice":4},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":12,"edge":7,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-07-26T06:06:07.294Z","firstDetectedPrice":6}],"indicators":{"tauDays":175,"iyYes":3957.8137573263775,"iyNo":10.963473011984428,"cri":19,"ee":7,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0,"cvr":null,"overround":0.07,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.365,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":0,"bidDepthUsd":33707,"askDepthUsd":10581,"volume24h":29.15,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":5,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-08-10T09:58:39.819Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-210","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Belo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-212","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 210-21","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-216","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 214-21","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-220","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 218-221 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 218-22","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-224","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 222-22","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-228","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 226-22","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-232","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 230-23","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-236","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 234-23","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-240","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 238-24","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-244","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 242-245 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 242-24","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"},{"connectedTicker":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-249","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Abov","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXDHOUSESEATS-27","groupLabel":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-07-13T18:31:44.378Z","priceCents":3,"iy":5817.841819774254,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-14T18:31:38.128Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4339.791828707029,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-24T00:02:29.698Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3600.296953115671,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-24T07:46:43.578Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4555.358526476722,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-25T22:01:50.747Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3636.468509283875,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T04:45:58.891Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4698.915387338676,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T13:16:15.403Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3727.051893890536,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T13:46:51.504Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4708.386410177855,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T14:00:58.995Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3727.6729323106188,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T15:16:33.753Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4709.981289115427,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T15:30:58.959Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3728.935680564367,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T18:02:53.410Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4712.895364038887,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T18:15:58.870Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3731.2228295958325,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T21:02:52.642Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4716.066929388204,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T22:16:00.738Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3734.578372294651,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T22:45:59.350Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4717.895689265172,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T00:16:24.461Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3736.2483433361704,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T00:31:00.704Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4719.75129712343,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T00:47:09.651Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3736.691236691236,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T01:16:38.781Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4720.5397365981935,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T03:02:14.441Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3738.5847825852566,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T03:16:34.311Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4722.677477788321,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T03:30:59.032Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3738.98791231305,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T04:30:59.523Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4723.976336976978,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T04:46:38.135Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3740.036456591847,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T05:31:39.631Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4725.046522290245,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T05:46:03.279Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3740.8636081667873,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T06:46:34.390Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4726.372185623412,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T07:16:05.135Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3742.1353104326513,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T08:01:24.070Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4727.698593023946,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T09:01:17.447Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3743.6099520105367,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T09:15:59.336Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4729.025745118469,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T13:31:19.469Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3747.392765667721,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T13:46:31.403Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4733.8301333146,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T14:02:55.310Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3747.8383052313006,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T14:32:51.143Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4734.648873899438,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T15:01:37.068Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3748.668911723846,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T15:32:18.074Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4735.698299257208,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T16:32:58.548Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3749.966204342066,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T17:03:09.839Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4737.337356825335,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T20:46:02.160Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3753.518077505953,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T21:01:46.305Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4741.568289950148,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T21:16:59.226Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3753.965074862778,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"Low observability — insufficient data for conviction","positives":["IY 3958%","tight LAS 0.000","11 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 5c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXDHOUSESEATS-27-248","marketTitle":"Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":5},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXDHOUSESEATS-27-210","reason":"Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXDHOUSESEATS-27-212","reason":"Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXDHOUSESEATS-27-216","reason":"Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20party%20win%20246-249%20House%20seats%20in%20the%20120","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":419}