{"ticker":"KXECONPATH-26-STAG","venue":"kalshi","title":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?","description":"If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":40,"bestBid":33,"bestAsk":39,"spread":6,"volume":14927.92,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":8409.98,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-13T13:25:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":65,"edge":29,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-08T06:05:48.007Z","firstDetectedPrice":40}],"indicators":{"tauDays":249,"iyYes":297.27802491178903,"iyNo":72.11756942056992,"cri":2.03,"ee":26,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.1818,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.17,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":6,"bidDepthUsd":1120,"askDepthUsd":1182,"volume24h":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":29,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T06:40:26.526Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXECONPATH-26-SOFT","connectedTitle":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Soft landing","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXECONPATH-26","groupLabel":"KXECONPATH-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT","connectedTitle":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Overheating","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXECONPATH-26","groupLabel":"KXECONPATH-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXECONPATH-26-SLACK","connectedTitle":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Slack / disinflation","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXECONPATH-26","groupLabel":"KXECONPATH-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T20:05:53.726Z","priceCents":26,"iy":372.7176734689597,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T19:26:11.172Z","priceCents":25,"iy":394.24084335137115,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T03:50:14.142Z","priceCents":26,"iy":375.8501853646915,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T00:51:13.942Z","priceCents":25,"iy":398.87368271510945,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T01:05:35.019Z","priceCents":26,"iy":378.43240715235845,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T02:25:34.559Z","priceCents":25,"iy":398.9681481319546,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T02:30:33.903Z","priceCents":26,"iy":378.51375962680584,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T04:40:32.936Z","priceCents":27,"iy":359.68707696776977,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T17:40:51.002Z","priceCents":24,"iy":422.11120119396304,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T19:25:13.289Z","priceCents":25,"iy":400,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T14:25:16.285Z","priceCents":24,"iy":426.57287599308137,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T01:01:00.217Z","priceCents":25,"iy":406.2823495363928,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T22:25:18.456Z","priceCents":26,"iy":386.72727923542254,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T01:50:30.915Z","priceCents":25,"iy":407.84857085391195,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T03:05:16.290Z","priceCents":32,"iy":288.94870170994295,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T00:00:22.636Z","priceCents":29,"iy":339.05906823715844,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T00:30:13.881Z","priceCents":31,"iy":308.27408375213804,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T00:40:22.435Z","priceCents":29,"iy":339.0950930460449,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T00:50:11.766Z","priceCents":31,"iy":308.29046114915894,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T01:00:43.596Z","priceCents":29,"iy":339.11310832135024,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T01:05:12.053Z","priceCents":31,"iy":308.30216035531686,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T02:05:13.581Z","priceCents":29,"iy":339.17102753050517,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-25T14:56:03.446Z","priceCents":31,"iy":308.9787115692008,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T21:15:41.819Z","priceCents":29,"iy":342.8129072267448,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T07:50:54.527Z","priceCents":27,"iy":382.15707265244106,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T12:30:15.963Z","priceCents":20,"iy":565.8081367860548,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T12:45:15.964Z","priceCents":36,"iy":251.48002886852936,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T17:20:12.658Z","priceCents":38,"iy":230.97007636199373,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T20:25:12.556Z","priceCents":39,"iy":221.52879844530858,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T22:20:10.899Z","priceCents":37,"iy":241.2340609275725,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T01:45:10.620Z","priceCents":34,"iy":275.17201392103095,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T02:05:17.637Z","priceCents":35,"iy":263.2741202372075,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T13:25:24.975Z","priceCents":34,"iy":275.69237811856254,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T13:40:53.473Z","priceCents":33,"iy":288.36277274926397,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T20:56:02.494Z","priceCents":35,"iy":264.0792649636105,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T03:55:23.260Z","priceCents":38,"iy":232.26817726855086,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T14:40:39.666Z","priceCents":39,"iy":223.05298983673802,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T15:25:37.257Z","priceCents":38,"iy":232.70382304720053,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T17:20:51.219Z","priceCents":33,"iy":291.9446438096274,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T21:15:51.258Z","priceCents":34,"iy":279.3081690856755,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T02:26:00.599Z","priceCents":33,"iy":292.38004168761915,"cri":2.03}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"29c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+29c executable edge (yes)","IY 297%","3 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.18)"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXECONPATH-26-STAG","marketTitle":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 36c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXECONPATH-26-STAG","marketTitle":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":36},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXECONPATH-26-SOFT","reason":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Soft landing"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT","reason":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Overheating"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXECONPATH-26-SLACK","reason":"State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Slack / disinflati"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=State%20of%20the%20economy%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":104}