{"ticker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%?","description":"If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":7,"bestBid":7,"bestAsk":13,"spread":6,"volume":3849.7,"volume24h":16,"openInterest":1392.98,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-30T12:29:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","thesisPrice":45,"edge":35,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-10T06:04:53.063Z","firstDetectedPrice":25}],"indicators":{"tauDays":21,"iyYes":23519.670745395837,"iyNo":133.24822135789069,"cri":13.286,"ee":32,"eeSource":"thesis","las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":0.47,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.625,"label":"taker","signals":{"spreadCents":6,"bidDepthUsd":804,"askDepthUsd":1039,"volume24h":16,"sfEdgeCents":35,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-07-09T21:52:07.785Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T12.5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30","groupLabel":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T15","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30","groupLabel":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30","groupLabel":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T7.5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30","groupLabel":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T18:00:28.020Z","priceCents":10,"iy":7337.502792048246,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T21:02:21.526Z","priceCents":9,"iy":10652.79862474182,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T22:16:23.810Z","priceCents":6,"iy":17022.902278320234,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-04T03:15:57.688Z","priceCents":11,"iy":11193.078449749162,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-05T18:30:57.755Z","priceCents":10,"iy":13273.263566204696,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T00:02:38.418Z","priceCents":9,"iy":15052.433133026983,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T23:31:20.196Z","priceCents":6,"iy":24291.985273293685,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T00:17:14.622Z","priceCents":7,"iy":20628.2359804565,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T04:30:58.196Z","priceCents":8,"iy":17990.313732213268,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T20:16:25.132Z","priceCents":9,"iy":17026.784570037165,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T21:31:55.699Z","priceCents":7,"iy":22426.516738129365,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T02:31:04.868Z","priceCents":8,"iy":19600.747139855244,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T07:16:03.346Z","priceCents":7,"iy":22855.661565186943,"cri":13.286}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["+35c executable edge (yes)","IY 23520%","4 connected markets"],"warnings":["taker regime","cliff risk 13.3","price drifted 72% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 6c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10","marketTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":6},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T12.5","reason":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T15","reason":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T5","reason":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20effective%20tariff%20rate%20(customs%20duties%20collected%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":190}