{"ticker":"KXELECTIRAN-27JAN01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?","description":"If Iran holds a presidential election before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":14,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":16,"spread":3,"volume":32952.56,"volume24h":6.97,"openInterest":16306.28,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":30,"edge":16,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-11T06:04:25.040Z","firstDetectedPrice":18},{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","thesisPrice":35,"edge":24,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-11T06:04:03.845Z","firstDetectedPrice":18}],"indicators":{"tauDays":218,"iyYes":1121.3858216998308,"iyNo":25.038208992901502,"cri":6.692,"ee":14,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.2308,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":3,"bidDepthUsd":1517,"askDepthUsd":865,"volume24h":6.97,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3,"sfEdgeCents":16,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-05-28T19:17:57.144Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01","connectedTitle":"Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXELECTIRAN","groupLabel":"KXELECTIRAN"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T22:00:52.605Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2197.1499511960205,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T06:15:50.346Z","priceCents":8,"iy":1904.8029623713494,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T17:31:08.624Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1678.3262718822875,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T17:45:24.358Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1493.9627532573845,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T19:15:46.650Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1343.4423388841055,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T19:46:09.011Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1494.5336918394369,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T20:00:24.583Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1343.6318221318518,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T20:45:46.290Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1494.8125227520932,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T21:00:22.968Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1343.882511118006,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T21:15:38.542Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1494.9553788813091,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T21:30:23.307Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1344.0109490243974,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T22:00:40.693Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1495.1663116500083,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T23:00:37.601Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1344.3964100870496,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T23:15:22.595Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1495.5202680555049,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T00:00:37.964Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1344.647384488022,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T01:15:23.457Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1112.4738960128554,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T02:00:23.703Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1021.2866194209087,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T02:45:29.454Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1112.7931792138434,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T03:00:25.685Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1021.4773836641717,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T04:00:36.144Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1113.0568526516727,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T04:15:25.718Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1021.7194310920386,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T04:30:42.430Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1113.1633715792266,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T07:46:12.878Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1220.5446699589454,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T08:16:08.153Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1113.9603738107933,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T08:45:47.129Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1220.7729027942476,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T10:16:35.366Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1114.3821802726804,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T10:30:31.042Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1221.1794799265772,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T11:15:33.790Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1114.5906603936498,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T12:15:43.906Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1023.2768591431204,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T12:45:41.551Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1114.9111599605226,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T13:00:23.381Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1221.7591810714052,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T13:15:34.796Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.0129444031475,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T13:30:49.968Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1023.5197602244373,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T13:45:21.431Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.119838071466,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T14:00:49.071Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1023.6178875839944,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T14:15:23.747Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.2267522370385,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T14:30:44.746Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1023.7160337607785,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T15:16:06.147Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.4406420835328,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T15:30:24.446Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1222.3394328527697,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T16:00:24.257Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.5985657944937,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T16:15:40.938Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1222.5180827627996,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T16:30:46.558Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.7055717819771,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T17:15:22.717Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1222.7470542911874,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T17:45:21.832Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1115.9706273578854,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T18:01:55.473Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1222.9258233808798,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T18:15:23.704Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1116.0777047355011,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T19:45:25.531Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1024.7359974510548,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:00:37.157Z","priceCents":15,"iy":945.5238095238096,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:15:27.070Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1025.0311362595867,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T23:45:34.342Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1117.2466932066263,"cri":6.692}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["+16c executable edge (yes)","IY 1121%","1 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.7","illiquid (LAS 0.23)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXELECTIRAN-26JUL01","reason":"Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jul 1, 2026?: "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iran%20hold%20a%20presidential%20election%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":198}