{"ticker":"KXFED-26JUL-T3.50","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","description":"If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":91,"bestBid":87,"bestAsk":93,"spread":6,"volume":16497.83,"volume24h":8,"openInterest":10849.51,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-29T17:55:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","thesisPrice":92,"edge":1,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-01T06:06:42.334Z","firstDetectedPrice":75}],"indicators":{"tauDays":62,"iyYes":88.07038800713325,"iyNo":3944.4069042958076,"cri":6.692,"ee":3,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.069,"cvr":null,"overround":1.82,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.438,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":6,"bidDepthUsd":1026,"askDepthUsd":5179,"volume24h":8,"observability":"high","eventType":"data_release","asPrior":0.5,"sfEdgeCents":1,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-05-28T20:00:22.845Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T2.75","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T3.00","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T3.25","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T3.75","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T4.00","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T4.25","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T4.50","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T4.75","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T5.00","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFED-26JUL-T5.25","connectedTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed'","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFED-26JUL","groupLabel":"KXFED-26JUL"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T12:50:16.824Z","priceCents":73,"iy":1093.9252558992723,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T18:10:11.953Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1284.4162434667942,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T18:15:10.458Z","priceCents":74,"iy":1154.4530858646385,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T18:30:11.640Z","priceCents":73,"iy":1096.7945361561435,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T18:35:11.155Z","priceCents":74,"iy":1154.6327233429886,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T19:45:11.107Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1217.7084839251356,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T21:10:12.074Z","priceCents":74,"iy":1156.020379513658,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T21:15:10.897Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1218.54864735536,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T23:10:14.710Z","priceCents":74,"iy":1157.08908772029,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T04:20:09.558Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1222.5621329522364,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T15:15:57.506Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1297.085998578536,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T16:36:06.800Z","priceCents":77,"iy":1372.1369061132225,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T16:45:58.375Z","priceCents":78,"iy":1453.2509535204713,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T17:01:02.963Z","priceCents":79,"iy":1542.1625145672454,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T02:40:54.430Z","priceCents":80,"iy":1647.204828792238,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T23:00:37.818Z","priceCents":81,"iy":1772.5117687826903,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-04T21:15:51.258Z","priceCents":82,"iy":1936.5926063961258,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T18:15:15.385Z","priceCents":83,"iy":2096.8851617082946,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:15:31.929Z","priceCents":82,"iy":1962.30383517959,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:20:31.366Z","priceCents":83,"iy":2103.1709667297023,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T03:05:17.510Z","priceCents":90,"iy":3882.152733460967,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T03:20:17.584Z","priceCents":91,"iy":4361.99789090212,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T03:35:59.174Z","priceCents":90,"iy":3883.1164225681773,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T04:00:49.048Z","priceCents":83,"iy":2106.975518189399,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T06:10:34.999Z","priceCents":84,"iy":2268.0467279764225,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T06:30:23.671Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2448.4561507349313,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T07:31:53.786Z","priceCents":84,"iy":2269.5510049388267,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:30:17.530Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2450.8642209372138,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:35:36.514Z","priceCents":84,"iy":2271.8650337297117,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T10:46:08.583Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2453.5971592841265,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T15:10:42.848Z","priceCents":84,"iy":2278.158213852628,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T19:10:48.505Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2463.856163214091,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T20:20:48.538Z","priceCents":87,"iy":2911.4677263046133,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T20:40:47.279Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2465.6772168246207,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T20:55:55.363Z","priceCents":87,"iy":2912.33553627144,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T21:25:47.722Z","priceCents":86,"iy":2673.8651193060045,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T21:55:47.161Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2467.2066290522025,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T11:50:55.050Z","priceCents":84,"iy":2301.718856978127,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T12:45:50.391Z","priceCents":85,"iy":2485.5294518215865,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T14:10:22.243Z","priceCents":86,"iy":2696.309174494753,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T01:36:38.353Z","priceCents":87,"iy":2954.428945309338,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T12:41:08.792Z","priceCents":88,"iy":3255.5725834569885,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-13T15:11:50.895Z","priceCents":89,"iy":3829.680881539842,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T02:32:09.346Z","priceCents":90,"iy":4650.273920244617,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T04:45:37.102Z","priceCents":91,"iy":5231.268860287402,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T23:30:53.969Z","priceCents":92,"iy":6016.454770880219,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T00:30:52.358Z","priceCents":91,"iy":5293.016214493448,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T14:30:47.023Z","priceCents":92,"iy":6070.839721153572,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T15:45:37.262Z","priceCents":91,"iy":5500.902601811829,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T12:30:34.750Z","priceCents":87,"iy":3925.5802453873966,"cri":6.692}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["10 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.7"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 82c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXFED-26JUL-T3.50","marketTitle":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":82},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFED-26JUL-T2.75","reason":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFED-26JUL-T3.00","reason":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFED-26JUL-T3.25","reason":"Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20upper%20bound%20of%20the%20federal%20funds%20rate%20be%20above%203.50","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":144}