{"ticker":"KXFERT-26-1100","venue":"kalshi","title":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?","description":"If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1100 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":33,"bestBid":22,"bestAsk":37,"spread":15,"volume":9087.99,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":3273.03,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":189,"iyYes":685.9381475092277,"iyNo":54.56838648824232,"cri":3.545,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.6818,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.55,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":15,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T13:21:35.023Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1000","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1200","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1300","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1300","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1400","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1400","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1500","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1500","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1600","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1600","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T03:31:19.915Z","priceCents":28,"iy":455.4823225022825,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T03:45:30.460Z","priceCents":29,"iy":433.6890816619053,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T04:45:28.515Z","priceCents":31,"iy":394.36109822323766,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T06:15:28.153Z","priceCents":32,"iy":376.6138860969084,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-09T08:01:34.707Z","priceCents":33,"iy":359.9600754157203,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-10T12:15:27.761Z","priceCents":34,"iy":346.1357087620755,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T16:01:34.763Z","priceCents":35,"iy":333.03387189601204,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T18:30:34.113Z","priceCents":37,"iy":305.4948418600869,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-11T21:31:15.505Z","priceCents":38,"iy":292.9139671682662,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T12:01:00.539Z","priceCents":39,"iy":281.6367643433309,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T13:00:40.124Z","priceCents":35,"iy":334.4700851929495,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T13:16:43.520Z","priceCents":37,"iy":306.6736834636802,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T17:15:43.768Z","priceCents":38,"iy":294.1044979403588,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T17:31:23.404Z","priceCents":39,"iy":281.9552918822963,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T18:01:36.824Z","priceCents":30,"iy":420.665458179597,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T19:45:36.716Z","priceCents":31,"iy":401.42469505430756,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T21:30:33.188Z","priceCents":32,"iy":383.38251503872743,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T22:45:30.117Z","priceCents":33,"iy":366.39190644698425,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-12T23:15:34.302Z","priceCents":32,"iy":383.5209011165062,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T02:15:56.203Z","priceCents":34,"iy":350.56102861503507,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T05:02:35.943Z","priceCents":35,"iy":335.57616553487804,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T06:15:41.862Z","priceCents":36,"iy":321.31642900805105,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T08:45:35.267Z","priceCents":31,"iy":402.5006340763413,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T09:31:22.548Z","priceCents":32,"iy":384.3323703861533,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T10:15:33.772Z","priceCents":33,"iy":367.2616741305411,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T13:15:31.665Z","priceCents":31,"iy":402.875879516357,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T14:01:13.104Z","priceCents":33,"iy":367.5458308835287,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T15:45:33.457Z","priceCents":30,"iy":422.5564083862976,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T16:15:37.878Z","priceCents":32,"iy":384.8682578276186,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T17:00:45.828Z","priceCents":33,"iy":367.77383811364126,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T18:00:33.181Z","priceCents":34,"iy":351.70255278531187,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T18:15:39.044Z","priceCents":31,"iy":403.2918608064204,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T20:00:41.987Z","priceCents":32,"iy":385.16640678538437,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T20:45:41.590Z","priceCents":33,"iy":368.0587882670895,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T22:45:33.919Z","priceCents":34,"iy":352.04856019591955,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T00:45:32.203Z","priceCents":35,"iy":336.94732118003293,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T01:30:46.111Z","priceCents":36,"iy":322.5975733370896,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T02:30:32.880Z","priceCents":30,"iy":423.49774327914884,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T03:00:31.659Z","priceCents":31,"iy":404.0239080766601,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T03:15:48.723Z","priceCents":32,"iy":385.7449072968886,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T19:45:40.396Z","priceCents":23,"iy":609.8074306028078,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T21:15:34.192Z","priceCents":24,"iy":576.9877164431931,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T21:30:54.843Z","priceCents":23,"iy":610.029664740893,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T22:16:07.050Z","priceCents":24,"iy":577.1087144664137,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T23:00:47.959Z","priceCents":25,"iy":549.5636113606593,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T23:45:30.607Z","priceCents":27,"iy":495.36279445223414,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-16T02:15:29.888Z","priceCents":28,"iy":471.3739006656631,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-18T09:15:40.447Z","priceCents":27,"iy":501.3930616759568,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-21T04:01:04.499Z","priceCents":23,"iy":629.7446514837818,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T04:30:56.504Z","priceCents":22,"iy":681.0323752313764,"cri":3.545}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 686%","6 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.68)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1000","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1200","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1300","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20the%20price%20of%20fertilizer%20get%20this%20year%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":127}