{"ticker":"KXFERT-26-1300","venue":"kalshi","title":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?","description":"If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1300 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":24,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":20,"spread":17,"volume":2184.28,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":1538.54,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":65,"edge":54,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-01T06:06:45.445Z","firstDetectedPrice":33}],"indicators":{"tauDays":189,"iyYes":6255.521396515778,"iyNo":5.983600017923478,"cri":32.333,"ee":45,"eeSource":"thesis","las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.55,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":17,"sfEdgeCents":54,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes","observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T13:27:15.047Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1000","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1100","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1200","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1400","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1400","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1500","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1500","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFERT-26-1600","connectedTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1600","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXFERT-26","groupLabel":"KXFERT-26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-31T23:45:31.673Z","priceCents":18,"iy":776.2082447683099,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T11:45:27.244Z","priceCents":17,"iy":833.8365619785941,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T12:00:48.569Z","priceCents":18,"iy":778.0642551614023,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T17:15:31.510Z","priceCents":17,"iy":834.7309807668832,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T18:01:08.753Z","priceCents":18,"iy":778.9755209610264,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T18:15:27.910Z","priceCents":17,"iy":834.8952309141902,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T19:01:28.656Z","priceCents":18,"iy":779.1288230807479,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T19:45:27.501Z","priceCents":17,"iy":835.1417273691617,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T20:01:16.156Z","priceCents":18,"iy":779.2821855519575,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T20:15:26.982Z","priceCents":17,"iy":835.2200106528803,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T20:31:05.509Z","priceCents":18,"iy":779.3552365224665,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T23:01:00.969Z","priceCents":17,"iy":835.6704244940945,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T01:45:28.289Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.156041634736,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T02:01:09.976Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.1644794458654,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T02:15:27.674Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.2292565377113,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T02:30:45.997Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.2429545944505,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T03:45:48.431Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.4599733292865,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T04:00:25.787Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.4863211914194,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T04:30:25.575Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.5735507359768,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T05:00:43.074Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.6512629305356,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T05:15:27.008Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.6871612044649,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T05:30:44.870Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.7337581954059,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T06:15:26.101Z","priceCents":18,"iy":780.8411378313749,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T06:45:41.562Z","priceCents":17,"iy":836.938102218335,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T08:45:27.911Z","priceCents":18,"iy":781.2226748250016,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T09:16:56.595Z","priceCents":17,"iy":837.3510243488245,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T10:16:22.231Z","priceCents":18,"iy":781.4539795929026,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T10:30:28.828Z","priceCents":17,"iy":837.5517335758854,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T11:30:27.179Z","priceCents":18,"iy":781.6450010237382,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T12:15:56.247Z","priceCents":17,"iy":837.8391907405424,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T13:01:18.146Z","priceCents":18,"iy":781.8765559813688,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T13:45:28.402Z","priceCents":17,"iy":838.0874288822163,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T14:01:21.960Z","priceCents":18,"iy":782.0310021859244,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T15:00:26.912Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3262.2705591254194,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T17:00:54.290Z","priceCents":18,"iy":782.4873424240952,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T18:45:28.512Z","priceCents":7,"iy":2282.8117623481653,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T19:00:55.865Z","priceCents":21,"iy":646.4210333993542,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T00:30:26.568Z","priceCents":20,"iy":688.0755563515029,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T00:45:52.586Z","priceCents":21,"iy":647.1491771431445,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T01:30:29.419Z","priceCents":20,"iy":688.2085366141083,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T02:15:41.625Z","priceCents":21,"iy":647.3413878900578,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T02:30:26.551Z","priceCents":20,"iy":688.3448136047109,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T19:15:27.109Z","priceCents":21,"iy":649.509348452136,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-13T05:30:38.582Z","priceCents":18,"iy":823.2469762933479,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T19:45:40.396Z","priceCents":14,"iy":1118.9230962266734,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T11:01:51.258Z","priceCents":13,"iy":1222.8869914553875,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-15T15:31:37.741Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1341.277437308225,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T04:30:56.504Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1554.1508050151924,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T12:31:18.987Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4642.633793710185,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T12:46:00.155Z","priceCents":3,"iy":6254.990919177144,"cri":32.333}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"54c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+54c executable edge (yes)","IY 6256%","6 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 32.3","price shifted 27% since edge was set"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXFERT-26-1300","marketTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 22c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXFERT-26-1300","marketTitle":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":22},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1000","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1100","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFERT-26-1200","reason":"How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20the%20price%20of%20fertilizer%20get%20this%20year%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":349}