{"ticker":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?","description":"If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.","price":20,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":21,"spread":5,"volume":18873.2,"volume24h":191.12,"openInterest":7799.24,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T14:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored","thesisSlug":"cali-governor-election","thesisPrice":42,"edge":25,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-08-02T06:04:41.040Z","firstDetectedPrice":31}],"indicators":{"tauDays":98,"iyYes":2100.4278712053515,"iyNo":65.4112485842497,"cri":5.667,"ee":22,"eeSource":"thesis","las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.05,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":5,"bidDepthUsd":140,"askDepthUsd":1274,"volume24h":191.12,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":25,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-09-25T04:00:33.095Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0","connectedTitle":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXGOVWINS-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50","connectedTitle":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXGOVWINS-27JAN01","groupLabel":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T09:16:08.187Z","priceCents":26,"iy":863.9915449742624,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T09:47:03.547Z","priceCents":27,"iy":820.892096668401,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T08:17:10.486Z","priceCents":26,"iy":870.9380141065516,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T09:16:03.527Z","priceCents":27,"iy":827.6320064508393,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T07:31:22.552Z","priceCents":28,"iy":793.3086767683718,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T08:01:08.257Z","priceCents":27,"iy":834.2648168499888,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T09:31:08.425Z","priceCents":28,"iy":793.8656059236632,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T08:17:00.788Z","priceCents":26,"iy":885.7904261173386,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T08:31:15.952Z","priceCents":27,"iy":841.5283253475783,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T09:16:11.770Z","priceCents":26,"iy":886.1002011686942,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T09:46:05.446Z","priceCents":27,"iy":841.901645539343,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T14:46:08.279Z","priceCents":28,"iy":802.1360994209235,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T16:16:23.007Z","priceCents":28,"iy":802.5682182985554,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T16:46:03.948Z","priceCents":27,"iy":843.996931265802,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-07T08:16:08.559Z","priceCents":26,"iy":893.4005451033313,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T06:31:01.384Z","priceCents":24,"iy":1019.6759974004513,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T07:46:38.626Z","priceCents":8,"iy":3704.7661076787294,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T09:16:09.954Z","priceCents":24,"iy":1020.71153970693,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T10:01:09.433Z","priceCents":25,"iy":967.254675064263,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-11T08:16:10.021Z","priceCents":23,"iy":1088.311829122845,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-11T09:30:58.478Z","priceCents":24,"iy":1029.897470625275,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-17T07:46:24.242Z","priceCents":25,"iy":1030.1034807149576,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-17T09:16:20.399Z","priceCents":23,"iy":1150.2066320329168,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-18T13:31:16.583Z","priceCents":20,"iy":1389.6688590437934,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T08:01:21.548Z","priceCents":7,"iy":4883.961843373666,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T09:31:17.224Z","priceCents":9,"iy":3719.268306884706,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T09:46:03.517Z","priceCents":10,"iy":3310.9245391414775,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T10:16:03.161Z","priceCents":11,"iy":2977.1178456609327,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T10:31:32.044Z","priceCents":10,"iy":3311.959349101687,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T10:46:07.137Z","priceCents":12,"iy":2698.9056492162085,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T11:31:00.203Z","priceCents":13,"iy":2463.7822840437216,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T12:01:30.061Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2086.6331056700596,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T13:47:31.618Z","priceCents":13,"iy":2466.1204519861762,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T14:02:20.857Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2088.402885058748,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T15:02:38.115Z","priceCents":13,"iy":2467.440738297431,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T22:31:27.048Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2095.8731059454562,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T23:16:02.500Z","priceCents":13,"iy":2475.9944328136507,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T23:46:11.072Z","priceCents":17,"iy":1806.7388765835428,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T00:01:22.494Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1943.00518134715,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:39.161Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2097.424612711644,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T00:31:03.874Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1943.3992880541161,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T00:46:19.556Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2097.8713621118686,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T01:01:11.090Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1943.8132721997931,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T01:16:39.251Z","priceCents":13,"iy":2478.104419851992,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T01:31:03.700Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1944.2274327573784,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T01:46:20.883Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2098.7654320987654,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T02:01:02.533Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1944.6417698396588,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T02:46:01.219Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2099.6389500790115,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T03:16:19.486Z","priceCents":16,"iy":1945.6685078385185,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-25T03:31:01.212Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2100.2998977775073,"cri":5.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"25c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+25c executable edge (yes)","IY 2100%","2 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 5.7","price shifted 35% since edge was set"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1","marketTitle":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 18c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1","marketTitle":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":18},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0","reason":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50","reason":"Will the difference between the number of Republican governo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20difference%20between%20the%20number%20of%20Republican%20governo","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":144}