{"ticker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-15","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Green Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?","description":"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":91,"bestBid":88,"bestAsk":91,"spread":3,"volume":955.95,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":805.01,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-12-31T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":480,"iyYes":10.36720154483611,"iyNo":557.5250608556308,"cri":7.333,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0341,"cvr":null,"overround":3.89,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":3,"bidDepthUsd":1011,"askDepthUsd":500,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-09-07T12:51:54.175Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-10","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-20","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-25","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-30","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-35","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-40","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn an","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-5","connectedTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN","groupLabel":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T14:31:14.511Z","priceCents":38,"iy":122.78386783833113,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T14:46:04.873Z","priceCents":39,"iy":117.7083845482435,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T15:31:54.658Z","priceCents":38,"iy":122.79450115045911,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T18:16:00.998Z","priceCents":39,"iy":117.74382835133892,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T18:31:18.536Z","priceCents":38,"iy":122.82615881297501,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T19:17:08.441Z","priceCents":39,"iy":117.75427134910326,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-02T19:46:30.478Z","priceCents":38,"iy":122.83933320877507,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T07:17:03.466Z","priceCents":67,"iy":153.00989962475506,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T07:32:02.427Z","priceCents":39,"iy":117.87827158529043,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T09:16:08.807Z","priceCents":67,"iy":153.03612597510863,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T20:46:59.827Z","priceCents":68,"iy":160.33293437434756,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T21:46:11.300Z","priceCents":67,"iy":153.20095718178902,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T22:02:08.557Z","priceCents":68,"iy":160.35017066116475,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T08:32:09.766Z","priceCents":69,"iy":168.10913897616223,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T09:16:04.372Z","priceCents":70,"iy":176.24129399048226,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T10:31:02.336Z","priceCents":74,"iy":214.99877973665554,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T11:17:10.253Z","priceCents":75,"iy":226.63534476513752,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T11:31:53.351Z","priceCents":74,"iy":215.0174696718695,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T12:02:06.484Z","priceCents":75,"iy":226.64988698553577,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T12:16:03.887Z","priceCents":74,"iy":215.03126670851057,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T15:16:04.331Z","priceCents":75,"iy":226.71323777560156,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T15:32:06.557Z","priceCents":74,"iy":215.09181657262934,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T17:01:14.038Z","priceCents":73,"iy":204.35269319133175,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T17:18:53.655Z","priceCents":75,"iy":226.75314348193433,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T17:46:10.566Z","priceCents":74,"iy":215.13324163023367,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T18:46:09.414Z","priceCents":75,"iy":226.7817903542145,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T19:01:01.084Z","priceCents":77,"iy":253.08057273200683,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T19:46:02.001Z","priceCents":78,"iy":268.0381583904982,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T20:01:09.744Z","priceCents":77,"iy":253.10258926515417,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T22:32:04.543Z","priceCents":82,"iy":344.4843599726898,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T09:31:10.347Z","priceCents":83,"iy":369.54694118330156,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T13:46:09.738Z","priceCents":86,"iy":465.1256520871977,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-05T14:01:07.297Z","priceCents":85,"iy":429.07830108503913,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T08:17:00.788Z","priceCents":83,"iy":370.27485528785974,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T09:01:07.698Z","priceCents":85,"iy":429.7844428421323,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T09:46:05.446Z","priceCents":86,"iy":465.93079584364193,"cri":6.143}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["tight LAS 0.034","7 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 7.3"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 82c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-15","marketTitle":"Will Green Party receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":82},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-10","reason":"Will Green Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-20","reason":"Will Green Party receive at least 20% of the popular vote in"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOLBORNVOTE-26DEC31GRN-25","reason":"Will Green Party receive at least 25% of the popular vote in"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Party%20receive%20at%20least%2015%25%20of%20the%20popular%20vote%20in","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":152}