{"ticker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T40","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026?","description":"If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":9,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"volume":42099.77,"volume24h":8022.33,"openInterest":22931.63,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-05-12T13:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":4,"edge":5,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-11T06:04:45.490Z","firstDetectedPrice":7},{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":50,"edge":-41,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-06T06:05:17.348Z","firstDetectedPrice":57},{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","thesisPrice":8,"edge":1,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-05-06T06:05:04.748Z","firstDetectedPrice":57}],"indicators":{"tauDays":1,"iyYes":100000,"iyNo":4514.812295132661,"cri":11.5,"ee":-42,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.125,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.57,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":4585,"askDepthUsd":2323,"volume24h":8022.33,"sfEdgeCents":5,"sfEdgeDirection":"no"},"computedAt":"2026-05-11T20:14:51.040Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T20","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T60","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T80","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 80 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T100","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T120","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 120 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T150","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T200","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T250","connectedTitle":"Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10","groupLabel":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T17:36:06.036Z","priceCents":19,"iy":40862.726669615215,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T18:20:32.132Z","priceCents":20,"iy":38655.01720942547,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T19:41:11.799Z","priceCents":19,"iy":41818.13038373952,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T19:50:31.811Z","priceCents":18,"iy":44758.486615821756,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T20:10:33.143Z","priceCents":19,"iy":42044.11325530796,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T20:25:35.556Z","priceCents":20,"iy":39555.675968572206,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T21:00:41.436Z","priceCents":19,"iy":42445.516409682146,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T22:40:28.786Z","priceCents":18,"iy":46226.79393321596,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-08T23:35:32.321Z","priceCents":17,"iy":50071.89726129282,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T02:35:43.329Z","priceCents":16,"iy":55802.271403610954,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T09:35:24.793Z","priceCents":14,"iy":71360.37101027553,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T09:50:18.362Z","priceCents":13,"iy":77991.45299145298,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T11:30:19.500Z","priceCents":14,"iy":73224.78305495941,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T11:40:19.081Z","priceCents":13,"iy":79957.19501447814,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T11:50:18.491Z","priceCents":14,"iy":73561.11736032995,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T12:36:10.581Z","priceCents":13,"iy":80964.2793401494,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T13:00:58.243Z","priceCents":11,"iy":98472.21801206464,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T15:45:35.983Z","priceCents":9,"iy":100000,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T19:25:37.465Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T20:00:33.809Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T21:05:37.481Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T21:55:47.509Z","priceCents":9,"iy":100000,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T00:05:36.814Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T00:10:48.148Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T00:15:35.607Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:05:35.819Z","priceCents":11,"iy":100000,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:10:41.535Z","priceCents":10,"iy":100000,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:20:35.741Z","priceCents":9,"iy":100000,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:25:36.002Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T01:45:34.773Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T02:30:32.851Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T02:45:39.937Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T02:55:34.013Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:50:35.707Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T05:00:36.145Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T05:05:49.226Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T06:05:33.932Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T06:15:22.029Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T13:30:21.086Z","priceCents":9,"iy":100000,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T13:40:23.317Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:00:19.683Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:20:20.394Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:35:23.259Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T15:05:23.203Z","priceCents":5,"iy":100000,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T18:10:28.483Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T19:20:22.316Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T20:35:25.894Z","priceCents":6,"iy":100000,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T16:20:50.754Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T16:40:51.761Z","priceCents":7,"iy":100000,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T19:15:25.978Z","priceCents":8,"iy":100000,"cri":11.5}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 100000%","8 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 11.5","price shifted 29% since edge was set"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 8c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T40","marketTitle":"Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 4, 2026 to May 10, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":8},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T20","reason":"Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T60","reason":"Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY10-T80","reason":"Will there be more than 80 transit calls through the Strait "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2040%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Strait%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":144}