{"ticker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?","description":"If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":15,"bestBid":14,"bestAsk":15,"spread":1,"volume":12137.57,"volume24h":188.76,"openInterest":12069.57,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T13:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":25,"edge":11,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-19T06:04:16.060Z","firstDetectedPrice":15}],"indicators":{"tauDays":561,"iyYes":399.9855245761096,"iyNo":10.599940889253311,"cri":6.143,"ee":10,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0714,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.01,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":12231,"askDepthUsd":4280,"volume24h":188.76,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":11,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:47:40.494Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50","connectedTitle":"Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vot","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T18:20:34.293Z","priceCents":14,"iy":394.17579210623734,"cri":6.143}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"11c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+11c executable edge (yes)","IY 400%","9 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.1"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11","marketTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 14c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11","marketTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":14},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50","reason":"Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1","reason":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3","reason":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20margin%20of%20victory%20in%20the%202026%20U.S.%20House","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2547}