{"ticker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?","description":"If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":15,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":15,"spread":2,"volume":26924.16,"volume24h":291.67,"openInterest":15061.16,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T13:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":25,"edge":12,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:01:53.343Z","firstDetectedPrice":14},{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":2,"edge":9,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-31T06:01:53.343Z","firstDetectedPrice":6},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","thesisPrice":5,"edge":9,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-19T06:04:16.060Z","firstDetectedPrice":15}],"indicators":{"tauDays":561,"iyYes":435.76240512853434,"iyNo":9.729666596211167,"cri":6.692,"ee":8,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0769,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.01,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"bidDepthUsd":2980,"askDepthUsd":1947,"volume24h":291.67,"observability":"low","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":12,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:47:45.829Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58","connectedTitle":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03","groupLabel":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T20:37:57.337Z","priceCents":8,"iy":731.624843347748,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T20:52:46.442Z","priceCents":10,"iy":572.5859445402143,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T03:40:57.157Z","priceCents":12,"iy":473.3868738014263,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T03:45:46.384Z","priceCents":13,"iy":432.0091944290335,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T05:35:54.264Z","priceCents":14,"iy":396.59446769037476,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T06:00:17.992Z","priceCents":13,"iy":432.08102631591834,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T18:40:26.849Z","priceCents":12,"iy":473.9098744994585,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T18:45:18.111Z","priceCents":13,"iy":432.48724908282867,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T21:30:16.660Z","priceCents":12,"iy":474.0089052283242,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T21:35:15.514Z","priceCents":13,"iy":432.5776245596746,"cri":6.692}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"12c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+12c executable edge (yes)","IY 436%","9 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.7"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50","marketTitle":"Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 14c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50","marketTitle":"Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":14},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1","reason":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3","reason":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5","reason":"Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Republicans%20win%20the%202026%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":1787}