{"ticker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T4000","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the S&P 500 be below 4000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?","description":"If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":4,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"volume":355352.9,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":336009.9,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T21:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support","thesisSlug":"iran-war","thesisPrice":15,"edge":10,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-14T09:15:37.652Z","firstDetectedPrice":5}],"indicators":{"tauDays":254,"iyYes":4647.954073146365,"iyNo":4.445912069116514,"cri":32.333,"ee":10,"eeSource":"regime","las":0.3333,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.22,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.442,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":32595,"askDepthUsd":9335,"volume24h":0,"observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15,"sfEdgeCents":10,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-21T23:19:09.281Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4100","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4000 and 4199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 4,000 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4300","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4200 and 4399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 4,200 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4500","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4400 and 4599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 4,400 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4700","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4600 and 4799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 4,600 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4900","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4800 and 4999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 4,800 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5100","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 5000 and 5199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 5,000 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5300","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 5200 and 5399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 5,200 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5500","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 5400 and 5599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 5,400 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5700","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 5600 and 5799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 5,600 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B5900","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 5800 and 5999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 5,800 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6100","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,000 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6300","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 6200 and 6399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,200 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6500","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,400 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6700","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 6600 and 6799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,600 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B6900","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 6800 and 6999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 6,800 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7100","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,000 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7300","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 7200 and 7399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,200 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7500","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 7400 and 7599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,400 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7700","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 7600 and 7799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,600 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 7,800 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,000 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8300","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 8200 and 8399.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,200 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,400 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8700","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 8600 and 8799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,600 ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8900","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be between 8800 and 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 8,800 to ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"},{"connectedTicker":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-T9000","connectedTitle":"Will the S&P 500 be above 9000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 9,000.01 or above","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXINXY-26DEC31H1600","groupLabel":"KXINXY-26DEC31H1600"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T04:07:35.743Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3272.2830898421007,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T04:52:53.510Z","priceCents":3,"iy":4409.00305846957,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T13:52:45.812Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3277.253392293964,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T19:23:02.646Z","priceCents":5,"iy":2596.726664095526,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T00:22:48.205Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3282.632401380505,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T19:00:54.010Z","priceCents":3,"iy":4452.064699232567,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T03:15:58.306Z","priceCents":2,"iy":6885.758395928221,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-16T13:40:40.877Z","priceCents":3,"iy":4551.268454779764,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T13:45:15.531Z","priceCents":2,"iy":6924.065628605275,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T18:35:18.189Z","priceCents":3,"iy":4572.517112230402,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T20:00:21.082Z","priceCents":2,"iy":6931.069093671161,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T19:45:33.965Z","priceCents":3,"iy":4627.160997234551,"cri":32.333}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["+10c executable edge (yes)","IY 4648%","26 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 32.3","illiquid (LAS 0.33)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4100","reason":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4000 and 4199.99 on Dec 31, 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4300","reason":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4200 and 4399.99 on Dec 31, 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B4500","reason":"Will the S&P 500 be between 4400 and 4599.99 on Dec 31, 2026"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20S%26P%20500%20be%20below%204000%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2753}