{"ticker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?","description":"If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":7,"bestBid":7,"bestAsk":10,"spread":3,"volume":375726.5,"volume24h":301.49,"openInterest":73590.15,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","thesisPrice":10,"edge":-3,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-10T06:04:00.518Z","firstDetectedPrice":65},{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","thesisPrice":15,"edge":32,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-10T06:04:00.518Z","firstDetectedPrice":68}],"indicators":{"tauDays":54,"iyYes":9005.507566271195,"iyNo":51.01975612756257,"cri":13.286,"ee":5,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.4286,"cvr":null,"overround":2.04,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.469,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":3,"sfEdgeCents":-3,"sfEdgeDirection":"no","observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.5},"computedAt":"2026-06-08T07:58:36.353Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26JUL01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-27JUN01","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31","connectedTitle":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01","groupLabel":"KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T11:45:36.810Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3609.3922626814638,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T15:30:26.993Z","priceCents":16,"iy":2838.0479857819905,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T15:45:46.022Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3618.3209760066175,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T16:15:53.498Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3322.2837499153284,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T16:45:45.574Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3065.650876464892,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T18:15:52.900Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3326.3746860661035,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T18:30:26.965Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3068.97148650988,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T19:15:52.689Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3328.4486396729017,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T01:15:47.909Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3081.866901097155,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T02:00:25.192Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3342.3911886092505,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T02:16:07.133Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3083.7967725743374,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T02:30:27.169Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3343.4378508266454,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T02:45:58.256Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3084.716608750553,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T03:45:25.918Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3346.032409292568,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T05:16:02.046Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3648.6956961362084,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T05:30:26.261Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3349.631529860701,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T07:45:26.697Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3654.372645890082,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T08:01:02.615Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3354.8941482266832,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T11:45:42.526Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3663.525567958947,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T12:16:26.897Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3363.802951230751,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T12:30:53.849Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3665.229661178344,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T13:00:52.148Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3365.368121311925,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T15:30:48.881Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3672.1171192007027,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T19:00:23.853Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3378.043898428386,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T23:15:22.595Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3690.03475639728,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T04:45:55.705Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3398.885589981138,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T05:15:39.196Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3704.023394077528,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T05:30:27.887Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3400.4835858148153,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T05:45:27.834Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3705.20326986668,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T06:15:43.685Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3402.083084959953,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T18:30:37.180Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3735.2891011427596,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:15:22.976Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3441.244504862032,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:30:39.197Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3174.9686596566635,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:45:25.955Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3442.354004272511,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T06:01:33.740Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3186.217874656602,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T09:15:25.332Z","priceCents":16,"iy":2958.0889163322013,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T20:30:42.719Z","priceCents":17,"iy":2771.0015759814205,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-29T22:15:50.059Z","priceCents":15,"iy":3270.712757097526,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T08:01:53.800Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3685.8556609999127,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T15:30:47.204Z","priceCents":13,"iy":4036.1736743098268,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T13:15:29.135Z","priceCents":12,"iy":4489.996756913924,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T17:15:27.674Z","priceCents":13,"iy":4109.025363251816,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T19:45:30.739Z","priceCents":12,"iy":4510.501098135697,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-02T20:00:49.715Z","priceCents":13,"iy":4116.989664417696,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-03T07:30:32.915Z","priceCents":14,"iy":3809.7341803185172,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-05T14:45:56.094Z","priceCents":13,"iy":4319.450244367576,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-05T18:00:24.191Z","priceCents":8,"iy":7440.265173000567,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T16:45:24.789Z","priceCents":11,"iy":5324.118082825807,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T17:45:29.411Z","priceCents":8,"iy":7573.160610543788,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-07T07:00:27.774Z","priceCents":7,"iy":8837.128174154814,"cri":13.286}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 9006%","8 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 13.3","illiquid (LAS 0.43)","price drifted 89% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27","reason":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01","reason":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26JUL01","reason":"Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jerome%20Powell%20leave%20Member%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Governors%20of","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":207}