{"ticker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will exactly 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?","description":"If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 6, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":8,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":10,"spread":2,"volume":12621,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":8897,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":55,"edge":22,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-30T06:00:39.052Z","firstDetectedPrice":31},{"thesisTitle":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","thesisPrice":18,"edge":6,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-03-30T06:00:39.052Z","firstDetectedPrice":12}],"indicators":{"tauDays":195,"iyYes":2148.2675674292445,"iyNo":16.24398916770695,"cri":11.5,"ee":22,"eeSource":"regime","las":0.25,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.16,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"bidDepthUsd":1646,"askDepthUsd":637,"volume24h":0,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3,"sfEdgeCents":22,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T05:52:18.602Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-2","connectedTitle":"Will exactly 2 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 2","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03","groupLabel":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-3","connectedTitle":"Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 3","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03","groupLabel":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-4","connectedTitle":"Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 4","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03","groupLabel":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-5","connectedTitle":"Will exactly 5 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 5","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03","groupLabel":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6T","connectedTitle":"Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03","groupLabel":"KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T03:07:37.247Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1761.6437411659256,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T03:22:52.498Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1568.138855473449,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T05:07:44.502Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1762.350380617807,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T05:23:11.887Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1568.7604166169215,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T06:08:06.438Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1762.703912974488,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T06:22:45.314Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1569.0751293233154,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T12:07:44.254Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1764.8027714018533,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T12:22:56.123Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1570.951035106093,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T14:08:00.362Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1765.5119479685588,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T14:22:44.610Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1571.5748280118262,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T14:37:58.009Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1765.6893311750623,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T21:40:34.577Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1589.0906628225346,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T04:15:39.194Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1787.6527900892509,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T09:05:40.028Z","priceCents":10,"iy":1592.7581625825471,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-12T05:50:33.867Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1303.2625384243347,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T16:40:33.578Z","priceCents":9,"iy":1809.7168418357062,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-19T04:00:39.598Z","priceCents":8,"iy":2115.0570901651736,"cri":11.5}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["+22c executable edge (yes)","IY 2148%","5 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 11.5","illiquid (LAS 0.25)","price drifted 74% since edge was written"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-2","reason":"Will exactly 2 House Republican members lose their primary i"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-3","reason":"Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary i"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-4","reason":"Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary i"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20exactly%206%20House%20Republican%20members%20lose%20their%20primary%20i","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":5696}