{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P38","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House election be at least 38 percentage points?","description":"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 1st District by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":0,"bestBid":48,"bestAsk":55,"spread":7,"volume":0,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":0,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":541,"iyYes":73.13862582618133,"iyNo":62.31930247911307,"cri":1.083,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1458,"cvr":null,"overround":3.37,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":7,"bidDepthUsd":1616,"askDepthUsd":2211,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-05-11T23:48:06.965Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P26","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P29","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P32","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P35","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P41","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P44","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P47","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P50","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1st District House el","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:06:20.784Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.422927214727,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:55:33.140Z","priceCents":9,"iy":675.149380484636,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:01:25.695Z","priceCents":50,"iy":66.77350427350427,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:15:41.035Z","priceCents":48,"iy":72.89498636118675,"cri":1.083}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"high","reasoning":"Market resolved or at extreme price","positives":["8 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P26","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P29","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL01D-P32","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Democrats%20in%20the%20Illinois's%201","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":153}