{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P5","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?","description":"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 14th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":98,"bestBid":92,"bestAsk":93,"spread":1,"volume":38,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":6,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":541,"iyYes":5.870322328140882,"iyNo":776.3501278966326,"cri":11.5,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0109,"cvr":null,"overround":3.38,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":932,"askDepthUsd":1098,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-05-11T23:00:45.259Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P8","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P11","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P14","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P17","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P20","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P23","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P26","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P29","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:11:28.660Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.446862996159,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:21:25.855Z","priceCents":1,"iy":6609.742579473305,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:30:32.510Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.5246567048416,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:01:25.695Z","priceCents":89,"iy":540.2583527583528,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T02:50:18.204Z","priceCents":90,"iy":601.0901964659191,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T14:10:42.281Z","priceCents":91,"iy":675.8838379213669,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T15:36:14.171Z","priceCents":92,"iy":768.8080956087737,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T17:25:44.416Z","priceCents":93,"iy":888.3118881488551,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T00:35:46.341Z","priceCents":92,"iy":769.3365102639301,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:15:41.035Z","priceCents":89,"iy":544.4184995366955,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:25:45.799Z","priceCents":90,"iy":605.5969323796181,"cri":9},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:55:22.643Z","priceCents":91,"iy":680.9105402655624,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T13:15:58.867Z","priceCents":92,"iy":775.7747582576816,"cri":11.5}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["tight LAS 0.011","8 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 11.5"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 88c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P5","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 14th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":88},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P8","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P11","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-IL14D-P14","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 1"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Democrats%20in%20the%20Illinois's%201","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":170}