{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P38","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?","description":"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Massachusetts's 2nd District by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":33,"bestBid":27,"bestAsk":35,"spread":8,"volume":1365,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":165,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":541,"iyYes":182.53400633542685,"iyNo":24.97040544539805,"cri":2.704,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.2963,"cvr":null,"overround":3.38,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":8,"bidDepthUsd":1165,"askDepthUsd":4851,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-05-11T23:50:28.738Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P20","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P23","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P26","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P29","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P32","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P35","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P41","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P44","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District Hou","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:11:28.660Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.446862996159,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:05:35.574Z","priceCents":9,"iy":675.1061541672943,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:15:32.480Z","priceCents":13,"iy":446.84267760571686,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:35:31.957Z","priceCents":9,"iy":675.13208929346,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:40:53.030Z","priceCents":28,"iy":171.69889919314582,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:01:25.455Z","priceCents":29,"iy":163.47995873857943,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:05:31.032Z","priceCents":28,"iy":171.70423905620686,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-07T04:56:20.454Z","priceCents":29,"iy":163.8411367508599,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-09T00:50:30.458Z","priceCents":32,"iy":142.685663827517,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T04:40:36.806Z","priceCents":27,"iy":181.931650508241,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:15:24.248Z","priceCents":28,"iy":173.1582563675193,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:30:22.302Z","priceCents":27,"iy":182.06893309518483,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:35:22.652Z","priceCents":28,"iy":173.16272894972454,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:40:20.911Z","priceCents":27,"iy":182.07128447823337,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:50:24.447Z","priceCents":28,"iy":173.1659237927607,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T14:55:22.643Z","priceCents":27,"iy":182.07497963145067,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T15:05:23.203Z","priceCents":28,"iy":173.16943825626547,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T15:10:24.900Z","priceCents":27,"iy":182.0783389918046,"cri":2.704}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 183%","8 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.30)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P20","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusett"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P23","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusett"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MA02D-P26","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusett"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Democrats%20in%20the%20Massachusett","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":121}