{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P3","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?","description":"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":46,"bestBid":46,"bestAsk":51,"spread":5,"volume":416.07,"volume24h":77.14,"openInterest":242,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":479,"iyYes":89.53565745065683,"iyNo":64.97169107187581,"cri":1.174,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":0.8,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":5},"computedAt":"2026-07-13T01:45:58.246Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P1","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P11","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P13","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P15","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P5","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P7","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P9","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-14T16:00:32.392Z","priceCents":50,"iy":71.99807479120558,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T05:15:55.731Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1388.6497158624443,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T05:31:00.386Z","priceCents":1,"iy":7235.755263869282,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-22T12:45:56.115Z","priceCents":45,"iy":89.38436546116878,"cri":1.222},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-29T03:30:58.020Z","priceCents":44,"iy":94.32816380537905,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T16:46:32.146Z","priceCents":42,"iy":102.8823983719213,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-02T00:02:42.834Z","priceCents":43,"iy":98.81831721596527,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-02T17:02:05.346Z","priceCents":48,"iy":80.87636228519614,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-02T17:46:01.184Z","priceCents":49,"iy":77.70701886612873,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-03T02:45:57.949Z","priceCents":48,"iy":80.94341296322834,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T23:01:41.452Z","priceCents":47,"iy":84.92376067610641,"cri":1.128},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T03:46:22.474Z","priceCents":44,"iy":95.88774791017252,"cri":1.273}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["7 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 41c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P3","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 3 percentage points?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":41},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P1","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P11","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MISEND-P13","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Democrats%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Senate%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":122}