{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P15","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 5th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":6,"bestBid":0,"bestAsk":25,"spread":25,"volume":271,"volume24h":4,"openInterest":190,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":404,"iyYes":1414.5746958107807,"iyNo":5.763319267676336,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.74,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":25,"bidDepthUsd":0,"askDepthUsd":5,"volume24h":4},"computedAt":"2026-09-25T10:01:28.748Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P12","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P18","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P3","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P6","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P9","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-08-26T15:46:05.267Z","priceCents":24,"iy":266.34068256952895,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-26T16:01:40.298Z","priceCents":23,"iy":281.584701189088,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T08:32:15.559Z","priceCents":24,"iy":266.77037437096436,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T09:17:22.607Z","priceCents":23,"iy":282.05201799914374,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T12:46:01.221Z","priceCents":24,"iy":266.87878431037524,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T14:31:24.931Z","priceCents":23,"iy":282.1940145349246,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T15:16:56.311Z","priceCents":24,"iy":266.94350266828025,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T17:46:08.295Z","priceCents":23,"iy":282.28201987574766,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T18:46:01.116Z","priceCents":24,"iy":267.0329272584594,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-27T19:03:20.438Z","priceCents":23,"iy":282.31723738344306,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T07:32:01.227Z","priceCents":24,"iy":271.1244451429434,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T09:16:07.003Z","priceCents":23,"iy":286.68341511197485,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-03T22:02:07.900Z","priceCents":24,"iy":271.5091209055368,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T03:47:05.246Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1344.0133625717938,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-04T12:46:15.328Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2060.72553535344,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-06T09:01:07.698Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2788.350750188817,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-08T21:46:12.178Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8588.888519150594,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-08T22:01:01.843Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4251.167080255188,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-08T22:16:08.935Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8589.317252084042,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-09T21:00:59.664Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4260.879716211355,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-09T22:16:02.672Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8609.78277185684,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-09T22:31:09.678Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2812.016256559452,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T07:46:37.685Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8617.914099894826,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T09:16:08.372Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2815.021185210982,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T14:01:08.444Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4268.078779880727,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-10T14:31:10.472Z","priceCents":1,"iy":8623.693379790942,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-09-24T22:31:25.190Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1413.026198848328,"cri":15.667}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 1415%","5 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 15.7"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 5c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P15","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 5th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":5},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P12","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P18","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MO05R-P3","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Republicans%20in%20the%20Missouri's","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":210}