{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P6","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House election be at least 6 percentage points?","description":"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana's 1st District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":36,"bestBid":35,"bestAsk":41,"spread":6,"volume":154,"volume24h":154,"openInterest":154,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":541,"iyYes":125.36357418022925,"iyNo":36.34801854929724,"cri":1.857,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1714,"cvr":null,"overround":0.42,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":6,"bidDepthUsd":1072,"askDepthUsd":996,"volume24h":154},"computedAt":"2026-05-11T22:08:08.157Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P3","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P9","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P12","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P15","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House e","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:15:50.035Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.464815062091,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:25:31.577Z","priceCents":1,"iy":6609.766760382007,"cri":99},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T22:35:34.008Z","priceCents":2,"iy":3271.542609624573,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-05T23:21:41.575Z","priceCents":38,"iy":108.9406634914852,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:01:25.455Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.44060924830154,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T00:05:31.032Z","priceCents":38,"iy":108.9468417403418,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:25:48.671Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.50752477647404,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:30:17.530Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.01664481355841,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:35:16.462Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.50886396165902,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:40:13.679Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.01804178739101,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:50:13.726Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.51077714288988,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T08:55:45.108Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.02023710432229,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:05:40.309Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.51288172314963,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:10:38.508Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.02223292371227,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:21:20.983Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.51498638817283,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:25:36.404Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.02442840944391,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:45:43.036Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.51823921903633,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T09:55:36.200Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.02862003684905,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T11:06:04.275Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.52895585878107,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T11:10:52.576Z","priceCents":38,"iy":109.03900069200975,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-06T11:15:54.777Z","priceCents":39,"iy":104.53010420052804,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-10T08:45:21.093Z","priceCents":37,"iy":114.610424240491,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T04:20:23.430Z","priceCents":34,"iy":130.85922307102965,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-11T04:55:33.772Z","priceCents":35,"iy":125.19987123806713,"cri":1.857}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 125%","4 connected markets"],"warnings":["illiquid (LAS 0.17)"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 32c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P6","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's 1st District House election be at least 6 percentage points?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":32},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P3","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P9","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-MT01R-P12","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Montana's "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Republicans%20in%20the%20Montana's%20","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":128}