{"ticker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P3","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?","description":"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 5th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":92,"bestBid":91,"bestAsk":96,"spread":5,"volume":1215,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":120,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":450,"iyYes":8.021710631623632,"iyNo":820.0961202527819,"cri":10.111,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":4.09,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":5,"bidDepthUsd":7620,"askDepthUsd":361,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-08-10T16:17:42.968Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P12","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P15","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P18","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P21","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P24","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P27","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P6","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P9","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House elec","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D","groupLabel":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T22:16:00.232Z","priceCents":46,"iy":93.0065229140987,"cri":1.174},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-30T22:32:12.133Z","priceCents":85,"iy":448.9681330305964,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T05:31:39.208Z","priceCents":44,"iy":100.90149861433217,"cri":1.273},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T08:45:59.140Z","priceCents":12,"iy":581.5553527716219,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T10:01:18.340Z","priceCents":13,"iy":530.7812153427278,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T13:31:19.469Z","priceCents":15,"iy":449.5770859869612,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T15:01:37.068Z","priceCents":14,"iy":487.4234198645772,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T15:15:57.702Z","priceCents":15,"iy":449.6484336219635,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T15:47:19.205Z","priceCents":14,"iy":487.4573300134264,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T17:03:09.459Z","priceCents":85,"iy":449.72175957534085,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-31T20:31:40.143Z","priceCents":84,"iy":416.7844791961198,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-01T02:16:00.602Z","priceCents":92,"iy":913.4313027847962,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-01T02:31:57.269Z","priceCents":84,"iy":417.0121366037095,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-01T05:32:13.894Z","priceCents":92,"iy":913.7037053161345,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-01T16:01:13.933Z","priceCents":84,"iy":417.5227744647101,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-02T05:31:11.523Z","priceCents":92,"iy":915.6949792209781,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-02T16:31:10.215Z","priceCents":84,"iy":418.45275660189054,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-02T17:15:55.629Z","priceCents":92,"iy":916.6728542539305,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-02T17:31:12.668Z","priceCents":84,"iy":418.491138798196,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T03:02:00.152Z","priceCents":92,"iy":917.4883442368186,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T16:47:13.868Z","priceCents":84,"iy":419.378630237719,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T18:46:13.543Z","priceCents":92,"iy":918.8058041821813,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T21:01:22.673Z","priceCents":84,"iy":419.5411484206861,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T22:45:56.129Z","priceCents":92,"iy":919.1417985617818,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-03T23:01:22.451Z","priceCents":84,"iy":419.61740090131514,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-04T03:31:35.608Z","priceCents":92,"iy":919.5404816880556,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-04T17:01:29.952Z","priceCents":84,"iy":420.3076882583633,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-04T21:31:00.142Z","priceCents":85,"iy":453.85259043406006,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-05T05:30:56.286Z","priceCents":92,"iy":921.7272916918284,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-05T17:01:37.654Z","priceCents":85,"iy":454.66269230656496,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-05T21:31:29.383Z","priceCents":84,"iy":421.4057634454003,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-05T21:46:01.790Z","priceCents":85,"iy":454.86066822367553,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-05T22:16:01.261Z","priceCents":84,"iy":421.4344937397871,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-06T00:46:40.778Z","priceCents":86,"iy":493.21983777639707,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-06T01:16:40.505Z","priceCents":85,"iy":455.00676093849444,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-06T17:16:35.914Z","priceCents":86,"iy":493.9674286784364,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T05:03:03.955Z","priceCents":85,"iy":456.16782270840906,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T05:15:57.714Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1529.534236423867,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T05:47:08.244Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1261.2560949070396,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T07:32:57.772Z","priceCents":7,"iy":1069.7504388356122,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T11:15:58.079Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2604.327575198534,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T11:31:50.565Z","priceCents":89,"iy":651.7079120771097,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T22:32:04.595Z","priceCents":91,"iy":815.2572766897048,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-07T23:02:10.067Z","priceCents":92,"iy":927.2861829388183,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-08T03:04:59.418Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1071.6724562341226,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-08T04:45:53.996Z","priceCents":91,"iy":815.7257884285069,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-08T17:15:57.183Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1073.073983148203,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-09T05:00:56.422Z","priceCents":91,"iy":817.5508966353779,"cri":10.111},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-09T17:15:58.076Z","priceCents":93,"iy":1075.4538006337723,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-08-10T03:31:16.818Z","priceCents":91,"iy":819.2532278059209,"cri":10.111}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["8 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 10.1"],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 83c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P3","marketTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":83},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P12","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P15","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMIDTERMMOV-OR05D-P18","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 5th"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Democrats%20in%20the%20Oregon's%205th","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":127}