{"ticker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LARR","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Luis Arraez be traded before Aug 5, 2026?","description":"If Luis Arraez is traded before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":76,"bestBid":76,"bestAsk":77,"spread":1,"volume":1486.3,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":843.59,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-08-05T03:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":23,"iyYes":499.9269513130501,"iyNo":5013.156372889198,"cri":3.167,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0132,"cvr":null,"overround":5.95,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":1214,"askDepthUsd":187,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-07-13T02:41:06.525Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ACHA","connectedTitle":"Will Aroldis Chapman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Aroldis Chapman","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ARUT","connectedTitle":"Will Adley Rutschman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Adley Rutschman","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-CWAL","connectedTitle":"Will Christian Walker be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Christian Walker","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-FTAT","connectedTitle":"Will Fernando Tatis Jr. be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Fernando Tatis Jr.","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-GHEN","connectedTitle":"Will Gunnar Henderson be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Gunnar Henderson","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-HGRE","connectedTitle":"Will Hunter Greene be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Hunter Greene","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JADE","connectedTitle":"Will Jo Adell be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jo Adell","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JBER","connectedTitle":"Will Jose Berrios be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jose Berrios","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JCHI","connectedTitle":"Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jazz Chisholm Jr.","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JDUR","connectedTitle":"Will Jarren Duran be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Jarren Duran","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JRYA","connectedTitle":"Will Joe Ryan be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Joe Ryan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LCAS","connectedTitle":"Will Luis Castillo be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Luis Castillo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LSEV","connectedTitle":"Will Luis Severino be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Luis Severino","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-MCHA","connectedTitle":"Will Matt Chapman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Matt Chapman","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-RARO","connectedTitle":"Will Randy Arozarena be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Randy Arozarena","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-RDEV","connectedTitle":"Will Rafael Devers be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Rafael Devers","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SALC","connectedTitle":"Will Sandy Alcantara be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Sandy Alcantara","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SGRA","connectedTitle":"Will Sonny Gray be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Sonny Gray","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SKWA","connectedTitle":"Will Steven Kwan be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Steven Kwan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-TSKU","connectedTitle":"Will Tarik Skubal be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Tarik Skubal","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-WADA","connectedTitle":"Will Willy Adames be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Willy Adames","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-WCON","connectedTitle":"Will Willson Contreras be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Willson Contreras","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-YDIA","connectedTitle":"Will Yandy Diaz be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Yandy Diaz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ZGAL","connectedTitle":"Will Zac Gallen be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Zac Gallen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05","groupLabel":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T21:16:40.224Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2014.3964300637822,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-23T22:30:59.673Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1836.7552334943643,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T00:00:58.125Z","priceCents":69,"iy":1926.7623736243554,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T00:16:36.585Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2020.369755341525,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T01:01:37.323Z","priceCents":72,"iy":2228.168526865201,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T02:31:04.379Z","priceCents":73,"iy":2346.2396325618784,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T02:45:57.291Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1844.4864569213576,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T03:31:12.004Z","priceCents":69,"iy":1933.4571380535224,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T04:45:56.839Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2029.3722845727991,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T06:46:04.701Z","priceCents":71,"iy":2133.5610009912434,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T07:30:58.363Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1853.212433995174,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T09:30:56.814Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2038.9922350706663,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T13:31:07.052Z","priceCents":71,"iy":2147.9717560156055,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T14:31:19.214Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1866.2327662953253,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T15:31:34.915Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2051.269699816148,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T17:31:26.066Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1871.8626315281401,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T18:31:35.171Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2057.464044708573,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T22:02:31.393Z","priceCents":71,"iy":2166.4582274417485,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T22:31:09.159Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1881.306393713011,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-24T23:01:19.481Z","priceCents":69,"iy":1971.5566647382952,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T00:15:55.662Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1884.6434212124893,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T01:15:56.007Z","priceCents":60,"iy":1331.6955707440466,"cri":1.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T02:31:22.574Z","priceCents":61,"iy":1390.3641798724725,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T03:16:22.932Z","priceCents":62,"iy":1451.4411791115615,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T05:16:19.132Z","priceCents":63,"iy":1517.819778455738,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T08:46:09.319Z","priceCents":62,"iy":1459.5875488087881,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T10:00:57.879Z","priceCents":63,"iy":1525.1576394181122,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T13:46:00.608Z","priceCents":58,"iy":1241.7412767235392,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T14:45:56.297Z","priceCents":60,"iy":1350.1516608714949,"cri":1.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T15:31:37.928Z","priceCents":61,"iy":1408.9623038511215,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T16:15:55.640Z","priceCents":63,"iy":1534.9893461926656,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-25T17:15:55.324Z","priceCents":65,"iy":1675.9145124660492,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T01:16:38.130Z","priceCents":66,"iy":1766.3336368875575,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T03:02:35.477Z","priceCents":68,"iy":1937.173755588302,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T03:45:56.264Z","priceCents":70,"iy":2128.6877119314818,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T06:45:58.628Z","priceCents":71,"iy":2240.549317157688,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T07:15:56.563Z","priceCents":72,"iy":2354.492708956748,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-26T08:31:29.470Z","priceCents":74,"iy":2609.4450122984945,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-02T17:15:59.168Z","priceCents":75,"iy":3273.8362184949324,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-02T17:31:51.150Z","priceCents":76,"iy":3456.8528930892853,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-03T21:45:57.393Z","priceCents":65,"iy":2101.2962052671905,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-03T22:45:57.103Z","priceCents":67,"iy":2300.216053824398,"cri":2.03},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-04T00:01:39.058Z","priceCents":68,"iy":2411.394372765429,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T09:31:19.763Z","priceCents":69,"iy":2729.0784199627446,"cri":2.226},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T10:15:57.902Z","priceCents":71,"iy":3004.979116467726,"cri":2.448},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T14:02:30.642Z","priceCents":72,"iy":3172.8860706920946,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T18:01:01.146Z","priceCents":73,"iy":3354.927254298323,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T19:16:52.846Z","priceCents":74,"iy":3537.9428322928648,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T04:00:57.887Z","priceCents":75,"iy":3775.9922755957105,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T18:46:57.881Z","priceCents":76,"iy":4740.3245430559555,"cri":3.167}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 500%","tight LAS 0.013","24 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 68c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LARR","marketTitle":"Will Luis Arraez be traded before Aug 5, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":68},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ACHA","reason":"Will Aroldis Chapman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Aroldis "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ARUT","reason":"Will Adley Rutschman be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Adley Ru"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-CWAL","reason":"Will Christian Walker be traded before Aug 5, 2026?: Christi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Luis%20Arraez%20be%20traded%20before%20Aug%205%2C%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":124}