{"ticker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?","description":"If Lisa Murkowski leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":22,"bestBid":18,"bestAsk":19,"spread":1,"volume":22550.63,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":4259.58,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","indicators":{"tauDays":237,"iyYes":700.5653208696842,"iyNo":33.75716299253087,"cri":4.556,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.0556,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.25,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":815,"askDepthUsd":664,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T06:42:04.923Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","connectedTitle":"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?: Marjorie Taylor Greene","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","groupLabel":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL","connectedTitle":"Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?: Henry Cuellar","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","groupLabel":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS","connectedTitle":"Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?: Thomas Massie","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","groupLabel":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET","connectedTitle":"Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?: John Fetterman","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","groupLabel":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC","connectedTitle":"Will Don Bacon leave the Republican?: Don Bacon","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","groupLabel":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T23:10:32.068Z","priceCents":22,"iy":510.16952250498076,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-22T23:55:22.640Z","priceCents":19,"iy":613.5176840013514,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T01:55:51.056Z","priceCents":20,"iy":575.8346644579858,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:05:22.495Z","priceCents":22,"iy":510.41299887626667,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:15:33.337Z","priceCents":21,"iy":541.5886964888863,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:25:20.047Z","priceCents":22,"iy":510.4411846968764,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:35:31.406Z","priceCents":20,"iy":575.8982632328405,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:40:21.752Z","priceCents":21,"iy":541.6250140407387,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:45:22.524Z","priceCents":20,"iy":575.9141651216914,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T02:55:56.724Z","priceCents":19,"iy":613.820203934055,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:00:21.253Z","priceCents":22,"iy":510.4895104895105,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:05:23.224Z","priceCents":20,"iy":575.9459715340677,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:15:29.382Z","priceCents":22,"iy":510.5116628693589,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:20:22.023Z","priceCents":19,"iy":613.8613696925856,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:25:38.438Z","priceCents":21,"iy":541.6933897062664,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:35:37.931Z","priceCents":20,"iy":575.9936877404083,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T03:50:23.111Z","priceCents":19,"iy":613.9122291357575,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T04:02:10.507Z","priceCents":20,"iy":576.0345936391577,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T04:10:23.436Z","priceCents":19,"iy":613.9461401134529,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T05:35:20.181Z","priceCents":20,"iy":576.1823577697796,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T05:45:28.148Z","priceCents":19,"iy":614.1060566248782,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T06:45:28.880Z","priceCents":20,"iy":576.2937993155525,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T06:50:37.881Z","priceCents":19,"iy":614.215138382785,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T15:35:33.666Z","priceCents":18,"iy":657.28936763624,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-23T15:40:28.714Z","priceCents":19,"iy":615.1086411061095,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-24T04:50:29.613Z","priceCents":18,"iy":658.726731628171,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-24T14:50:21.949Z","priceCents":19,"iy":617.464051228318,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T15:25:26.071Z","priceCents":20,"iy":584.042051027674,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T16:15:25.711Z","priceCents":21,"iy":549.3523605290852,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T16:50:45.341Z","priceCents":20,"iy":584.1799274176446,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T19:35:25.292Z","priceCents":19,"iy":622.8969458982453,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-26T21:20:23.592Z","priceCents":20,"iy":584.6173559278599,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T01:35:36.532Z","priceCents":21,"iy":550.2086633201922,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T02:05:36.351Z","priceCents":22,"iy":518.5947266912891,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T02:35:35.757Z","priceCents":23,"iy":489.7287646689926,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T03:05:47.794Z","priceCents":24,"iy":463.2672801701563,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T05:55:45.622Z","priceCents":20,"iy":585.4566160607592,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T06:25:55.168Z","priceCents":21,"iy":550.6543782990806,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T06:45:55.986Z","priceCents":22,"iy":519.0002964153432,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T07:15:53.582Z","priceCents":23,"iy":490.11179187521765,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T07:45:54.577Z","priceCents":20,"iy":585.637442288639,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T08:10:55.383Z","priceCents":19,"iy":624.2087865963911,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T11:15:43.760Z","priceCents":20,"iy":585.9782626145868,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T11:40:28.726Z","priceCents":19,"iy":624.5720788712114,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T12:10:14.792Z","priceCents":20,"iy":586.0676466574073,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T12:40:14.698Z","priceCents":19,"iy":624.6773873547043,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T16:15:36.970Z","priceCents":20,"iy":586.4702125351982,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T18:10:35.717Z","priceCents":21,"iy":551.7363574646954,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T07:10:52.655Z","priceCents":19,"iy":631.7045831860817,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-03T16:25:59.002Z","priceCents":18,"iy":684.4396878973317,"cri":4.556}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 701%","5 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 20c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK","marketTitle":"Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":20},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN","reason":"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?: Mar"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL","reason":"Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?: Henry Cuellar"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS","reason":"Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?: Thomas Massie"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lisa%20Murkowski%20leave%20the%20Republican%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":132}