{"ticker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P10","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be between 9% and 12%?","description":"If the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":5,"bestBid":0,"bestAsk":5,"spread":5,"volume":49,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":49,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-08-04T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":404,"iyYes":1715.284957433231,"iyNo":4.751481876546348,"cri":19,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":1,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.02,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":5,"bidDepthUsd":0,"askDepthUsd":6658,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-06-26T06:43:19.549Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P1","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P10","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P13","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P4","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P57","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P7","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Se","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P1","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Sen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P13","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Sen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P4","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Sen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P57","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Sen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P7","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Sen","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-MMCM-P50","connectedTitle":"Will the margin of victory for Mallory McMorrow in the 2026 Michigan Democratic ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26","groupLabel":"KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T18:47:01.695Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2076.8087320798195,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:00:52.899Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1644.1792262044469,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:15:31.562Z","priceCents":6,"iy":1355.7588732857414,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T19:31:11.664Z","priceCents":8,"iy":995.2106598383006,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T20:01:53.342Z","priceCents":3,"iy":2798.2678480960635,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T20:45:28.542Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4240.985682375426,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-08T22:16:34.534Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1644.709537418031,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-10T17:00:55.073Z","priceCents":2,"iy":4259.611216698342,"cri":49},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-10T18:45:57.370Z","priceCents":4,"iy":2086.7029854621596,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-19T18:15:34.866Z","priceCents":5,"iy":1688.0749130404088,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 1715%","12 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0","illiquid (LAS 1.00)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P1","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Mi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P10","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Mi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-AELS-P13","reason":"Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Mi"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Haley%20Stevens%20in%20the%202026%20Mic","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":119}