{"ticker":"KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?","description":"If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.","price":6,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":7,"spread":2,"volume":142013.69,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":45715.43,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","thesisSlug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","thesisPrice":7,"edge":-1,"direction":"no","firstDetectedAt":"2026-06-06T06:05:20.461Z","firstDetectedPrice":7}],"indicators":{"tauDays":207,"iyYes":3351.3424699901416,"iyNo":9.283497146787099,"cri":19,"ee":-1,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.4,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.304,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":2,"sfEdgeCents":-1,"sfEdgeDirection":"no","observability":"low","eventType":"financial","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-06-08T07:02:36.296Z","fresh":false},"crossVenue":{"ticker":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","confidenceScore":0.85,"priceCents":null},"contagion":[],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T07:15:21.032Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3097.2818950809706,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T07:45:38.696Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3912.723049780021,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T16:00:45.083Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3102.3391682062793,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T21:31:14.019Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3922.762771369205,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-22T23:30:51.219Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3106.6752079702896,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T12:00:18.237Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3933.4015841370765,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-23T16:00:28.071Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3116.2796967749755,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-24T22:30:25.038Z","priceCents":4,"iy":3958.946269506623,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-25T00:45:47.036Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3135.497813967998,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T07:15:38.305Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4020.0820537295895,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T09:15:25.332Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3183.7776543340224,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-01T06:01:38.581Z","priceCents":4,"iy":4094.2806264810215,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-05T16:15:23.508Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3309.772778252382,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T04:30:32.105Z","priceCents":6,"iy":2735.782859694447,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-06T07:30:30.075Z","priceCents":5,"iy":3319.849685248569,"cri":19}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 3351%"],"warnings":["cliff risk 19.0","illiquid (LAS 0.40)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","reason":"Same market on polymarket"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Satoshi%20move%20any%20Bitcoin%20by%202027%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":211}