{"ticker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BGUI","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Bruno Guimaraes leave Newcastle before Sep 15, 2026?","description":"If Bruno Guimaraes transfers out of Newcastle before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":38,"bestBid":70,"bestAsk":80,"spread":10,"volume":212.44,"volume24h":200.58,"openInterest":212.44,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-09-15T03:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":63,"iyYes":249.14959214553076,"iyNo":1356.4811127923338,"cri":2.333,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1429,"cvr":null,"overround":4.56,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":10,"bidDepthUsd":656,"askDepthUsd":598,"volume24h":200.58},"computedAt":"2026-07-14T09:32:00.897Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BBAR","connectedTitle":"Will Bradley Barcola leave PSG before Sep 15, 2026?: Bradley Barcola","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER","connectedTitle":"Will Bruno Fernandes leave Manchester United before Sep 15, 2026?: Bruno Fernand","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DUPA","connectedTitle":"Will Dayot Upamecano leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?: Dayot Upamecano","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA","connectedTitle":"Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?: Dusan Vlahovic","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-HKAN","connectedTitle":"Will Harry Kane leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?: Harry Kane","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-JBRA","connectedTitle":"Will Julian Brandt leave Dortmund before Sep 15, 2026?: Julian Brandt","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-KMAI","connectedTitle":"Will Kobbie Mainoo leave Manchester United before Sep 15, 2026?: Kobbie Mainoo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LGOR","connectedTitle":"Will Leon Goretzka leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?: Leon Goretzka","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LMES","connectedTitle":"Will Lionel Messi leave Inter Miami before Sep 15, 2026?: Lionel Messi","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MMAG","connectedTitle":"Will Mike Maignan leave AC Milan before Sep 15, 2026?: Mike Maignan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-MSAL","connectedTitle":"Will Mohammed Salah leave Liverpool before Sep 15, 2026?: Mohammed Salah","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RICH","connectedTitle":"Will Richarlison leave Tottenham before Sep 15, 2026?: Richarlison","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RNEV","connectedTitle":"Will Ruben Neves leave Al-Hilal before Sep 15, 2026?: Ruben Neves","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-RODR","connectedTitle":"Will Rodrygo leave Real Madrid before Sep 15, 2026?: Rodrygo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-SMCT","connectedTitle":"Will Scott McTominay leave Napoli before Sep 15, 2026?: Scott McTominay","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM","groupLabel":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T18:46:09.452Z","priceCents":30,"iy":1245.4180315083452,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T20:16:25.132Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1602.7282973024398,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T22:16:41.740Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1693.826509178659,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T01:31:05.144Z","priceCents":77,"iy":1794.2770828585094,"cri":3.348},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T19:31:09.455Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1625.7627722595878,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-13T12:17:06.106Z","priceCents":70,"iy":1337.9625265759678,"cri":2.333}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 249%","15 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 34c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BGUI","marketTitle":"Will Bruno Guimaraes leave Newcastle before Sep 15, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":34},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BBAR","reason":"Will Bradley Barcola leave PSG before Sep 15, 2026?: Bradley"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-BFER","reason":"Will Bruno Fernandes leave Manchester United before Sep 15, "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DUPA","reason":"Will Dayot Upamecano leave Bayern before Sep 15, 2026?: Dayo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bruno%20Guimaraes%20leave%20Newcastle%20before%20Sep%2015%2C%202026%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":213}