{"ticker":"KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?","description":"If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":20,"bestBid":19,"bestAsk":20,"spread":1,"volume":124236.03,"volume24h":30.28,"openInterest":80833.75,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","thesisPrice":32,"edge":13,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-08T06:03:49.634Z","firstDetectedPrice":18}],"indicators":{"tauDays":254,"iyYes":612.8097445973148,"iyNo":33.71807922567148,"cri":4.263,"ee":12,"eeSource":"thesis","las":0.0526,"cvr":null,"overround":0.43,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.577,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":2338,"askDepthUsd":3155,"volume24h":30.28,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.5,"sfEdgeCents":13,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T07:06:30.175Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN","connectedTitle":"Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01","connectedTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01","connectedTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01","connectedTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01","connectedTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXWHVISIT-27-XJIN","connectedTitle":"Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NXJIN","connectedTitle":"Will Donald Trump meet in person Xi Jinping before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-TAI","connectedTitle":"Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?: Taiwan","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXMARALAGO-27-XJIN","connectedTitle":"Will Xi Jinping be reported to visit Mar-a-Lago before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-XJINCHI","connectedTitle":"Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before J","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-XJINNYC","connectedTitle":"Will Xi Jinping visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPMEET-26APR-XJIN","connectedTitle":"Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet before May 1, 2026?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x7b49b9bacb5f435bc10f3b100ff59e2fdd346f7f92a9001881bc9825a0af0f11","connectedTitle":"What will happen before GTA VI?: China invades Taiwan ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa467b14d51f01b957109d9cbb1d6c124fab2a089d52ed8f471d23c2812e743b7","connectedTitle":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4","connectedTitle":"Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66","connectedTitle":"Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x7f347ed733252dc7afbd91e28104e23651b81ef6d2ef6805c7915c22e89a69b5","connectedTitle":"Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214","connectedTitle":"Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?: Taiwan","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x3d6148ee5b42224e83416e728fa2df2242ecb1e025782bece2d4f5b45a2ab987","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump meet with in 2026?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x42520d88b4fa9d58ea74d3579b14398e76873a88c09bbfc9e0e801694a547d5c","connectedTitle":"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?: Taiwan","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4c80df6f557bb0b9de08c0301ebdce500dd9bdc58400d9269fb8fab1709ed584","connectedTitle":"China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x68fc8d466ddc10a1ae37b52642f36b93e413cf98ba5fe3947c242a9a727b2e94","connectedTitle":"2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner: Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4ba35ccd015e3899f323b7b0bcb38ecab3a3c0fafc397666e690ba301fbeff30","connectedTitle":"Xi Jinping out by June 30?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc","connectedTitle":"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xc4eef02c621d3e8e506400736f327f0e71f0fafa4bc48e72c7b712b0982d1949","connectedTitle":"Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x68e47e45601b8e7fff925490f419191126c0f87cdf978717881fd2efa18cfb5b","connectedTitle":"Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xb3f709495e9ac8a2ee7d563278bb452694969c6370d5dffd80fc520d8d9f54a1","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Cai Qi","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x030d920e78575d28eb4c90032b4b784134fc1527b237e2275498c2d9d562dc2c","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Wang Huning","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd4e49b3f60c6702b7a1ebaa2aa0ba8ef953296f46f4d3cafb01e04b9c9999a8c","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Ding Xuexiang","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x18598938f75c9a0ba7c7585eba6a41c157a87408404ca2d3e2a3a97ea0497a01","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Zhang Shengmin","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x16a2b3df1bf89e800eaf6951e6eed12234aa3d0e77b299523612773d34af1db2","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Wang Yi","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x09d19209ca723f7f0e5a03c43e732f95ff38b4c6bb5a53a6d63721d4923f5f5e","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Li Qiang","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x70b871e140dc7cc83f32afae2b0b79c05b5d18841b4644160f506baa66dc3962","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Zhao Leji","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x122e768333fee2f23acb222836de2c7d7ea95ea3c206954eaa9868a30a70207e","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Li Xi","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x9491ede41573b5c58be84b8ea4940616fe78566ea403f979bb455342700149f8","connectedTitle":"Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?: Dong Jun","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xd7e906eaec2c7f66697447785aa1d4fdaa82f536ca533a2bc0d3535b04e832ec","connectedTitle":"Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x5ca616aaa0e1e5df6c38439f8bee4b96bacfe32f8f39cb2f1604c0196548662f","connectedTitle":"Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d","connectedTitle":"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x3b2dc7c6795378b9285eb9661d588ad47f211b305d047415c41d12776a5bad48","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump talk to in April?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"},{"connectedTicker":"0x4150eabbc681baef54453cc547dce2e6e7980b8a31a00b3052bb5fe9951c3777","connectedTitle":"Who will Trump meet with in April?: Xi Jinping","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:china_taiwan","groupLabel":"China / Taiwan"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T07:30:44.941Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1114.8499662816657,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T07:50:41.473Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1010.516672266666,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T08:00:40.306Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1114.938354909058,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T16:30:38.929Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1011.8957608750444,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T17:30:40.813Z","priceCents":13,"iy":923.5899801466691,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T17:50:40.736Z","priceCents":14,"iy":847.8064527281055,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T18:10:40.455Z","priceCents":13,"iy":923.6877699725119,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T18:25:42.602Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1012.2018857459791,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T18:30:40.647Z","priceCents":11,"iy":1116.7850890884065,"cri":8.091},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T01:05:59.902Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1017.1174663008593,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T02:01:19.293Z","priceCents":14,"iy":852.1272777913209,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T02:35:45.697Z","priceCents":13,"iy":928.4308597494888,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T02:40:45.375Z","priceCents":14,"iy":852.2147266179862,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T05:01:00.980Z","priceCents":13,"iy":928.7838766277847,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T05:21:03.610Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1017.8020292665616,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T05:25:44.383Z","priceCents":13,"iy":928.8474481777419,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T06:15:12.927Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1017.9491177563033,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T10:26:14.728Z","priceCents":13,"iy":929.5826845575104,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T10:40:58.584Z","priceCents":12,"iy":1018.661937436651,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T10:55:33.798Z","priceCents":14,"iy":853.3304626198303,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T11:10:32.281Z","priceCents":13,"iy":929.6923627331403,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T11:30:34.506Z","priceCents":14,"iy":853.408413698904,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T12:25:34.791Z","priceCents":13,"iy":929.8763971572224,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T15:25:35.080Z","priceCents":14,"iy":853.9382084980318,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T15:30:46.335Z","priceCents":15,"iy":787.7534490397788,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T16:20:41.819Z","priceCents":14,"iy":854.061813505985,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T16:25:55.887Z","priceCents":15,"iy":787.8674757386337,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-13T18:05:36.720Z","priceCents":16,"iy":730.1279462305775,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T01:31:12.380Z","priceCents":17,"iy":679.8014921300551,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T02:21:09.154Z","priceCents":16,"iy":731.0861851894242,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T02:25:34.559Z","priceCents":17,"iy":679.8974554397294,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T08:45:11.873Z","priceCents":16,"iy":731.8316701229363,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T08:50:10.770Z","priceCents":17,"iy":680.5933506961956,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T09:15:11.246Z","priceCents":16,"iy":731.8903682654627,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T10:15:10.631Z","priceCents":17,"iy":680.7467428869325,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T13:25:50.974Z","priceCents":16,"iy":732.3770867730691,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T17:55:51.922Z","priceCents":19,"iy":595.1375660534258,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T21:31:18.697Z","priceCents":16,"iy":733.3215976365328,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T19:45:31.741Z","priceCents":15,"iy":794.339641964688,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-17T17:15:17.220Z","priceCents":16,"iy":741.3274839548299,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T14:55:54.614Z","priceCents":15,"iy":802.9711875044484,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T15:00:54.943Z","priceCents":16,"iy":743.9378528002734,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T16:20:55.727Z","priceCents":19,"iy":604.2312743485891,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-18T18:45:54.706Z","priceCents":15,"iy":803.4671452508036,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T05:50:25.395Z","priceCents":16,"iy":748.6404338110046,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T05:55:17.770Z","priceCents":17,"iy":696.2227931323176,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T06:50:37.258Z","priceCents":16,"iy":748.7632950664655,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T14:26:21.460Z","priceCents":18,"iy":650.5237661783284,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-20T14:46:08.724Z","priceCents":16,"iy":749.7300384988575,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-21T04:56:02.536Z","priceCents":19,"iy":610.2119322903144,"cri":4.263}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"13c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+13c executable edge (yes)","IY 613%","40 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01","marketTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 18c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01","marketTitle":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":18},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN","reason":"Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?: Xi Jinping"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01","reason":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for T"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01","reason":"Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for T"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20State%20Department%20issue%20a%20Level%204%20warning%20for%20T","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":2344}