{"ticker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","description":"If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":14,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"volume":13162.14,"volume24h":64.43,"openInterest":4413.8,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"high","edges":[{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","thesisPrice":28,"edge":15,"direction":"yes","firstDetectedAt":"2026-04-21T06:04:55.268Z","firstDetectedPrice":15}],"indicators":{"tauDays":70,"iyYes":3482.644901826812,"iyNo":77.76020457243115,"cri":6.692,"ee":14,"eeSource":"thesis","las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":0.03,"hasThesis":true,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.577,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"bidDepthUsd":1267,"askDepthUsd":1249,"volume24h":64.43,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.5,"sfEdgeCents":15,"sfEdgeDirection":"yes"},"computedAt":"2026-04-22T00:43:39.068Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T80","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?: Above $80‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T100","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?: Above $100‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?: Above $125‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T150","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150‎ billion?: Above $150‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T200","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200‎ billion?: Above $200‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T250","connectedTitle":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250‎ billion?: Above $250‎ billion","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN","connectedTitle":"Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadi","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-MINE","connectedTitle":"Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critic","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-WIND","connectedTitle":"Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind t","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-FILM","connectedTitle":"Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreig","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONVZ-26APR27-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Verizon Communications Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tari","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONUAL-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: T","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSLA-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Tesla, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONSBUX-26APR28-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONPG-26APR24-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will The Procter & Gamble Company say during their next earnings call?: Tar","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-26MAY07-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONLLY-26APR30-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Eli Lilly and Company say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONKO-26APR28-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will The Coca-Cola Company say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONINTC-26APR23-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONGEV-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will GE Vernova Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONDPZ-26APR27-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Domino's Pizza, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONCVNA-26APR29-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Carvana Co. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONCMG-26APR29-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tar","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONBA-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will The Boeing Company say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONAMZN-26APR29-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Amazon.com, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEARNINGSMENTIONAAPL-26APR30-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Apple Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T7.5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T10","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T12.5","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T15","connectedTitle":"Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-44","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-55","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Be","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-30","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Above 60%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-5","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-14","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-24","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-34","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-44","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-55","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Be","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEINDIA-26JUL01-30","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on India imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Above 60%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-5","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-14","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-24","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-34","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 30% and 39.99% on ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-44","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 40% and 49.99% on ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-55","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-30","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?:","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-5","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-14","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-24","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-34","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-44","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 40% and 49.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-30","connectedTitle":"Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be above 60% on Jul 1, 2026?: Above 60%","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXSECPRESSMENTION-26MAY07-TARI","connectedTitle":"Will the White House Press Secretary say Tariff at her next press briefing?: Tar","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXHOCHULMENTION-26APR22B-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Kathy Hochul say during next Governor Kathy Hochul announcement?: Tari","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFEDMENTION-26APR-TRAD","connectedTitle":"Will Powell say Trade War at his Apr 2026 press conference?: Trade War","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXFEDMENTION-26APR-TARI","connectedTitle":"Will Powell say Tariff Inflation at his Apr 2026 press conference?: Tariff Infla","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR25-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner?: Tariff","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXLUTNICKFTNMENTION-26APR23-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Howard Lutnick say during Budget Hearing - Department of Commerce?: Ta","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Donald Trump Jr. say during Turning Point Tour at Baylor University?: ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXBESSENTMTPMENTION-26APR22-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will Scott Bessent say during A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2027 ","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26APR21-TARI","connectedTitle":"What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatoria","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"0xfa772932032462681258298f5b3471dd5f2f5ee514b51558db05a39556d5e97f","connectedTitle":"Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"0x1b3f1f2bec1c92ff851c9b02c3c8bbc320e5aac7bc371ad0f615c5521a4494e7","connectedTitle":"100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"},{"connectedTicker":"0xfd1be18abbc39bdf1b16659499488e584e6c06c7b1959b425b5fb4b046d01a33","connectedTitle":"Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?","groupType":"theme","groupKey":"theme:tariff_trade","groupLabel":"Tariffs & trade"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T06:38:02.061Z","priceCents":17,"iy":2124.280395195389,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T06:53:13.281Z","priceCents":16,"iy":2284.5408266669842,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T10:38:06.744Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2470.448184290259,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T11:23:40.810Z","priceCents":16,"iy":2289.6727246657347,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-08T20:22:44.769Z","priceCents":17,"iy":2138.8898106381794,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T01:52:45.681Z","priceCents":18,"iy":2001.2249395553847,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-09T04:07:44.848Z","priceCents":17,"iy":2147.2140438217357,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T00:25:53.613Z","priceCents":16,"iy":2332.680040901787,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T01:26:26.608Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2519.1013243043544,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-10T04:25:53.228Z","priceCents":14,"iy":2734.954266406676,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T10:30:39.737Z","priceCents":15,"iy":2562.101542628746,"cri":5.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T14:30:39.422Z","priceCents":14,"iy":2783.1616503554537,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-11T14:35:39.844Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3032.2156802456702,"cri":6.692},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-14T21:40:15.148Z","priceCents":14,"iy":2901.9619444531754,"cri":6.143},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-15T00:55:14.667Z","priceCents":13,"iy":3167.062944316341,"cri":6.692}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"consider_long","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"15c edge in neutral regime","positives":["+15c executable edge (yes)","IY 3483%","69 connected markets"],"warnings":["cliff risk 6.7"],"sizeHint":"small"},"nextActions":{"execute":{"description":"Buy 10 YES contracts at market","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24","marketTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"},"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 13c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-24","marketTitle":"Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":10,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":13},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T80","reason":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80‎ billion?: Abov"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T100","reason":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100‎ billion?: Abo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTARIFFREVENUE-26DEC31-T125","reason":"Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125‎ billion?: Abo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20tariff%20rate%20on%20China%20imports%20be%20between%2020%25%20and%2029.","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":1621}