{"ticker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SDUF","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027?","description":"If Sean Duffy leaves as Secretary of Transportation before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":24,"bestBid":21,"bestAsk":24,"spread":3,"volume":12619.7,"volume24h":24.33,"openInterest":3661.23,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T14:59:00Z","liquidityScore":"medium","indicators":{"tauDays":243,"iyYes":565.4134430158939,"iyNo":39.95310501041647,"cri":3.762,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1429,"cvr":null,"overround":8.41,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.409,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":3,"bidDepthUsd":237,"askDepthUsd":728,"volume24h":24.33,"observability":"medium","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.3},"computedAt":"2026-05-03T18:45:32.769Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT","connectedTitle":"Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG","connectedTitle":"Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB","connectedTitle":"Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?: Tul","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RFK","connectedTitle":"Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kenne","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIL","connectedTitle":"Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Susie Wiles","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PNAV","connectedTitle":"Will Peter Navarro leaves Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufa","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT","connectedTitle":"Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SBES","connectedTitle":"Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027?: Scott Besse","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KLEA","connectedTitle":"Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?: Karoli","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-JGRE","connectedTitle":"Will Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in before 2027?: J","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-THOM","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027?: Tom Homan","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MRUB","connectedTitle":"Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?: Marco Rubio","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LZEL","connectedTitle":"Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027?: Lee Zeldin","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LMCM","connectedTitle":"Will Linda McMahon leaves Secretary of Education in before 2027?: Linda McMahon","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RVOU","connectedTitle":"Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027?: Russell Vought","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SMIL","connectedTitle":"Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Stephen Miller","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-AGLE","connectedTitle":"Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 20","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SWIT","connectedTitle":"Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027?: Stev","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MHUC","connectedTitle":"Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027?: Mike Huckabee","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MOZ","connectedTitle":"Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?: Mehmet Oz","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BCAR","connectedTitle":"Will Brendan Carr leaves Chairman of the FCC in before 2027?: Brendan Carr","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BPUL","connectedTitle":"Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?: Bill Pulte","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-BROL","connectedTitle":"Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027?: Brooke Roll","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-CWRI","connectedTitle":"Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027?: Chris Wright","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-STUR","connectedTitle":"Will Scott Turner leaves Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in before 20","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-DBUR","connectedTitle":"Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027?: Doug Burgum","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-DCOL","connectedTitle":"Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027?: Doug Col","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KLOE","connectedTitle":"Will Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration in","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-JRAT","connectedTitle":"Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027?: John Ratcliffe","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TBLA","connectedTitle":"Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?: Todd Blanche","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"},{"connectedTicker":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RSCO","connectedTitle":"Will Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in before 2027?: Rodney Scott","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31","groupLabel":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T21:35:37.171Z","priceCents":16,"iy":770.4291888632024,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T21:40:37.073Z","priceCents":17,"iy":716.4890875838436,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T21:45:39.103Z","priceCents":16,"iy":770.4508720719853,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T21:50:36.682Z","priceCents":17,"iy":716.5092530092443,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:00:35.863Z","priceCents":16,"iy":770.4849481518413,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:25:35.892Z","priceCents":17,"iy":716.5784002289644,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:30:36.253Z","priceCents":16,"iy":770.5500108570646,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:35:35.990Z","priceCents":17,"iy":716.5985706821181,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:40:38.657Z","priceCents":16,"iy":770.5717008673834,"cri":5.25},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T22:45:36.528Z","priceCents":17,"iy":716.618742270831,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-27T23:35:35.793Z","priceCents":18,"iy":668.7464166319223,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T00:05:36.220Z","priceCents":20,"iy":587.2415734856407,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T00:55:47.823Z","priceCents":19,"iy":625.9614908236778,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T01:45:36.505Z","priceCents":21,"iy":552.4400376965847,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T04:50:36.487Z","priceCents":19,"iy":626.3747299268774,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:20:44.587Z","priceCents":20,"iy":587.8563375744886,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T06:25:44.963Z","priceCents":21,"iy":552.8737933028548,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T07:45:44.452Z","priceCents":19,"iy":626.679969705699,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T09:10:43.378Z","priceCents":21,"iy":553.1276891481853,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T09:25:44.399Z","priceCents":22,"iy":521.3252611845052,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T09:36:10.695Z","priceCents":21,"iy":553.1677992842103,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T10:40:47.139Z","priceCents":19,"iy":626.9880334673553,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:05:46.164Z","priceCents":20,"iy":588.4249556666128,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T12:15:48.389Z","priceCents":21,"iy":553.4152737241653,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T13:45:57.480Z","priceCents":19,"iy":627.311573659831,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T15:20:33.584Z","priceCents":20,"iy":588.7452870133274,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T15:25:18.628Z","priceCents":21,"iy":553.7076231723424,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T17:00:17.582Z","priceCents":19,"iy":627.653169452132,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T17:15:17.448Z","priceCents":20,"iy":588.9352776265101,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T17:20:17.517Z","priceCents":21,"iy":553.8863091444355,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T18:55:21.983Z","priceCents":19,"iy":627.855772195705,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T19:55:20.938Z","priceCents":21,"iy":554.1277182237012,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-28T20:05:18.680Z","priceCents":22,"iy":522.2594038795049,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:05:35.703Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.4034535089845,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:15:30.144Z","priceCents":20,"iy":589.6274039432342,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:25:36.841Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.4364462955198,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:30:32.358Z","priceCents":20,"iy":589.6535987043776,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:40:30.371Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.4643659747926,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T00:55:36.545Z","priceCents":20,"iy":589.6940860953365,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T01:00:31.015Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.4999037001671,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T01:20:30.399Z","priceCents":18,"iy":671.6448724301113,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T01:25:30.532Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.5430620560045,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T03:45:29.994Z","priceCents":18,"iy":671.9162791867143,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T03:50:37.402Z","priceCents":19,"iy":628.799595730671,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-29T03:55:29.558Z","priceCents":20,"iy":589.9919583287871,"cri":4},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T10:25:44.549Z","priceCents":18,"iy":675.40427221974,"cri":4.556},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T11:45:15.144Z","priceCents":19,"iy":632.1947839920969,"cri":4.263},{"capturedAt":"2026-04-30T19:25:11.372Z","priceCents":21,"iy":558.5888729716405,"cri":3.762},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-01T00:15:20.582Z","priceCents":22,"iy":526.8799453984337,"cri":3.545},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-02T14:05:37.869Z","priceCents":21,"iy":562.6586288535092,"cri":3.762}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 565%","31 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 22c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-SDUF","marketTitle":"Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":22},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KPAT","reason":"Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG","reason":"Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-TGAB","reason":"Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence "},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sean%20Duffy%20leaves%20Secretary%20of%20Transportation%20in%20before","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":4028}