{"ticker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.40","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.40%?","description":"If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":98,"bestBid":48,"bestAsk":99,"spread":51,"volume":104,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":52,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-09-30T19:29:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":80,"iyYes":496.5113407585062,"iyNo":423.062917569378,"cri":1.083,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":null,"cvr":null,"overround":5.59,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":false},"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":51,"bidDepthUsd":790,"askDepthUsd":51,"volume24h":0},"computedAt":"2026-07-13T04:29:09.445Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.20","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.20%?: Above 3.20%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.30","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.30%?: Above 3.30%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.50","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.50%?: Above 3.50%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.60","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.60%?: Above 3.60%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.70","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.70%?: Above 3.70%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.80","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.80%?: Above 3.80%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.90","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.90%?: Above 3.90%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.00","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.10","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.20","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.30","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.30%?: Above 4.30%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.40","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.40%?: Above 4.40%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.50","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.50%?: Above 4.50%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.60","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.60%?: Above 4.60%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"},{"connectedTicker":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70","connectedTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.70%?: Above 4.70%","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXUSTYLD-26SEP30","groupLabel":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-06-30T22:31:07.351Z","priceCents":92,"iy":4568.757210962844,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-06-30T22:46:14.575Z","priceCents":93,"iy":5278.823589786658,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T00:00:58.854Z","priceCents":92,"iy":4571.892256919108,"cri":11.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T00:16:21.469Z","priceCents":93,"iy":5282.446311858081,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T00:30:58.273Z","priceCents":3,"iy":12857.246613647092,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T00:46:53.735Z","priceCents":4,"iy":9544.667080704738,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T01:15:59.852Z","priceCents":83,"iy":1942.1079387628583,"cri":4.882},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T01:31:40.167Z","priceCents":88,"iy":2917.411460376975,"cri":7.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T02:15:59.740Z","priceCents":93,"iy":5287.226702013496,"cri":13.286},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T03:16:18.484Z","priceCents":94,"iy":6237.614762294332,"cri":15.667},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-01T04:30:57.851Z","priceCents":95,"iy":7568.977560464501,"cri":19},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T08:15:58.970Z","priceCents":96,"iy":10131.032648293562,"cri":24},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-06T08:32:29.406Z","priceCents":97,"iy":13650.488880663755,"cri":32.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T12:16:41.916Z","priceCents":64,"iy":760.7138205028007,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T14:31:52.685Z","priceCents":62,"iy":698.9253289550896,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T14:46:41.444Z","priceCents":64,"iy":761.6424349604312,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T18:01:13.814Z","priceCents":66,"iy":832.9662380699801,"cri":1.941},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-07T21:01:09.225Z","priceCents":68,"iy":913.1875765282094,"cri":2.125},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T00:32:07.471Z","priceCents":70,"iy":1004.454194136818,"cri":2.333},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T04:46:00.158Z","priceCents":72,"iy":1109.252039960087,"cri":2.571},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T08:46:22.406Z","priceCents":74,"iy":1230.1898892145912,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T12:01:31.540Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1298.7629134988315,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T12:16:04.915Z","priceCents":76,"iy":1371.0790303001547,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T14:45:59.551Z","priceCents":75,"iy":1300.5213962492726,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-08T15:31:05.146Z","priceCents":61,"iy":678.3074150744796,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T01:31:05.144Z","priceCents":60,"iy":653.7391491241686,"cri":1.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T05:16:02.599Z","priceCents":59,"iy":628.3423084015508,"cri":1.439},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T08:01:44.900Z","priceCents":39,"iy":683.897883126413,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T09:16:29.609Z","priceCents":42,"iy":604.1925310729627,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T10:31:17.090Z","priceCents":43,"iy":580.3284148373282,"cri":1.326},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T17:16:04.158Z","priceCents":42,"iy":606.613896701992,"cri":1.381},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T17:46:02.123Z","priceCents":48,"iy":475.99271314843355,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-09T20:46:35.264Z","priceCents":49,"iy":458.00636460308334,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T01:46:06.407Z","priceCents":48,"iy":477.91421918183505,"cri":1.083},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T02:16:02.321Z","priceCents":27,"iy":1193.0459903669762,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T02:31:32.225Z","priceCents":61,"iy":690.2649544747554,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T05:31:04.090Z","priceCents":62,"iy":721.1333169328349,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T08:46:02.245Z","priceCents":61,"iy":692.4417333528642,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T11:01:38.779Z","priceCents":60,"iy":664.829026617447,"cri":1.5},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T12:17:08.854Z","priceCents":61,"iy":693.6785369349161,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T20:03:00.384Z","priceCents":51,"iy":463.4258309550033,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-10T20:16:07.313Z","priceCents":50,"iy":445.3011577830102,"cri":1},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T02:31:00.574Z","priceCents":51,"iy":464.95154538004516,"cri":1.041},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T04:02:41.919Z","priceCents":61,"iy":699.2607276771258,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T10:17:09.889Z","priceCents":62,"iy":731.757634628207,"cri":1.632},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T15:31:13.880Z","priceCents":63,"iy":765.7074927450088,"cri":1.703},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-11T21:02:19.946Z","priceCents":64,"iy":801.7407659095435,"cri":1.778},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-12T01:46:08.676Z","priceCents":65,"iy":839.5763368638598,"cri":1.857},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-12T18:32:39.024Z","priceCents":61,"iy":713.2740737608365,"cri":1.564},{"capturedAt":"2026-07-13T00:00:58.051Z","priceCents":48,"iy":495.4413134363267,"cri":1.083}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"monitor","confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong signal in either direction","positives":["IY 497%","15 connected markets"],"warnings":[],"sizeHint":null},"nextActions":{"watch":{"description":"Buy YES if price drops to 88c","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.40","marketTitle":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.40%?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":5,"triggerType":"price_below","triggerPrice":88},"auth":"required"},"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.20","reason":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.20%?: A"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.30","reason":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.30%?: A"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T3.50","reason":"Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.50%?: A"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20UST%20Par%20Yield%20Curve%20(2Y)%20for%20Q3%202026%20be%20above%203.40%25%3F","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":221}