{"ticker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-18","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 16% and 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?","description":"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Tom Steyer in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 16% to 19.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.","price":32,"bestBid":25,"bestAsk":32,"spread":7,"volume":5376.46,"volume24h":0,"openInterest":2284.53,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-06-02T14:00:00Z","liquidityScore":"low","indicators":{"tauDays":370,"iyYes":296.18369339713234,"iyNo":32.909299266348036,"cri":3,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.28,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.18,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true},"regime":{"score":0.636,"label":"taker","signals":{"spreadCents":7,"bidDepthUsd":557,"askDepthUsd":850,"volume24h":0,"observability":"direct","eventType":"political","asPrior":0.8},"computedAt":"2026-05-28T21:11:41.858Z","fresh":true},"crossVenue":null,"contagion":[{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-10","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 8% and 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 Calif","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-14","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 12% and 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 Cali","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-2","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Califo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-22","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Cali","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-26","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 Cali","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-30","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Cali","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-6","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 Califo","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"},{"connectedTicker":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-66","connectedTitle":"Will Tom Steyer receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California ","groupType":"event","groupKey":"event:KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE","groupLabel":"KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE"}],"diff24h":{"priceDelta":0,"volumeDelta":0,"spreadDelta":null,"bidDepthDelta":null,"askDepthDelta":null,"signals":[]},"trend7d":[{"capturedAt":"2026-05-19T18:30:37.271Z","priceCents":27,"iy":260.5122994656589,"cri":2.704},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T02:45:38.205Z","priceCents":26,"iy":274.48718355215067,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T19:16:18.724Z","priceCents":24,"iy":305.95408262304346,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-20T19:30:51.253Z","priceCents":25,"iy":289.85890885988834,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-21T02:31:13.908Z","priceCents":24,"iy":306.1988601543225,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T19:46:09.806Z","priceCents":25,"iy":294.5448676565526,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T20:00:24.583Z","priceCents":24,"iy":310.91683479040574,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T20:16:13.737Z","priceCents":25,"iy":294.5615068636866,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T20:45:46.290Z","priceCents":24,"iy":310.943600614803,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T22:00:40.693Z","priceCents":25,"iy":294.6193625459418,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T23:15:23.306Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.0306213795319,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-26T23:45:24.206Z","priceCents":25,"iy":294.67724095986733,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T01:15:23.457Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.10010559908415,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T01:45:41.899Z","priceCents":25,"iy":294.7430755565126,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T02:00:24.515Z","priceCents":26,"iy":279.6355730406874,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T02:45:30.257Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.1528673622852,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T11:30:24.890Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.06553418987676,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T11:45:33.412Z","priceCents":26,"iy":279.942266182912,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T12:15:44.722Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.4849229619409,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T12:45:42.413Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.10688528831537,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T13:00:23.381Z","priceCents":26,"iy":279.9814990381532,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T15:30:25.339Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.19837600455065,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T15:45:55.750Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.6075263889114,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T16:45:23.998Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.23976434743923,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T17:00:47.397Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.65121667556457,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T19:30:35.019Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.3313374868517,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T20:00:53.782Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.75629154315544,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:15:27.861Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.388699156726,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:30:53.898Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.8084349689451,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T21:45:23.951Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.40543384132275,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-27T22:15:38.092Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.83451322340215,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:02:21.314Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.48116206399663,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:30:40.034Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.9136158951359,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T00:45:26.710Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.505084306656,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T01:00:43.008Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.93129325319825,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T01:30:39.248Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.53060563532335,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T01:45:23.910Z","priceCents":24,"iy":311.95739206319223,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T11:00:45.959Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.846797289557,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T11:15:28.578Z","priceCents":24,"iy":312.29116794645256,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T11:30:37.736Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.86278451462294,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T12:01:34.788Z","priceCents":24,"iy":312.31817092788447,"cri":3.167},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T12:30:35.683Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.8963633120936,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T12:45:22.894Z","priceCents":26,"iy":280.7297768546457,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T13:00:58.846Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.9131555692477,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T14:15:26.902Z","priceCents":26,"iy":280.77757821074516,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T14:30:43.018Z","priceCents":25,"iy":295.96274383140667,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T15:45:23.943Z","priceCents":26,"iy":280.8246367110683,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T16:00:43.043Z","priceCents":25,"iy":296.0131489311087,"cri":3},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T18:15:44.646Z","priceCents":26,"iy":280.9043685465315,"cri":2.846},{"capturedAt":"2026-05-28T18:30:26.115Z","priceCents":25,"iy":296.0963949249889,"cri":3}],"legislation":null,"suggestion":{"action":"avoid","confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Illiquid — spread too wide relative to depth","positives":["IY 296%","8 connected markets"],"warnings":["taker regime","illiquid (LAS 0.28)","direct observability (live sports/weather)"],"sizeHint":"pass"},"nextActions":{"deeper":[{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-10","reason":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 8% and 12% of the popular vo"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-14","reason":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 12% and 16% of the popular v"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02TSYE-2","reason":"Will Tom Steyer receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vot"},{"url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tom%20Steyer%20receive%20between%2016%25%20and%2020%25%20of%20the%20popular%20v","reason":"News + market context"}]},"latencyMs":152}