# World State — 2026-04-05T13:51 UTC

SF Index: Uncertainty 22/100 | Geopolitical Risk 53/100 | Momentum +0.02

Markets: SPY $655.94 (+0.12%) | VIXY $33.59 (+0.15%) | TLT $86.78 (+0.38%) | GLD $429.08 (-1.79%) | USO $138.18 (+11.99%)

## Geopolitical
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 56c (-7c) [polymarket]
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?: 30c [polymarket]
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: 10c [polymarket]
- Will Trump visit China by...?: June 30: 79c (+5c) [polymarket]

## Economy
- US recession by end of 2026?: 31c [polymarket]
- Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease: 0c [polymarket]
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps): 36c [polymarket]
- What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?:  ↓ 3.25%: 62c (+6c) [polymarket]

## Elections
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Gavin Newsom: 17c [polymarket]
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ron DeSantis: 3c [polymarket]
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8c [polymarket]
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Kash Patel: 55c (+7c) [polymarket]

## Crypto
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: 4c [polymarket]
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: June 30, 2026: 3c [polymarket]
- Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto by ___?: December 31, 202: 5c [polymarket]
- Bitcoin price  on Apr 5, 2026?: 77c (+40c) [kalshi]

## Tech
- Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA: 73c [polymarket]
- Largest Company end of December 2026?: SpaceX: 3c [polymarket]
- IPOs before 2027?: SpaceX: 94c [polymarket]
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 31, 2026?: 60c (-9c) [kalshi]

## Mispriced (top edges)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?: 4c, model says yes (87c edge)
- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWat: 100c, model says no (85c edge)
- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWat: 1c, model says yes (85c edge)

## Divergence Alerts
- Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.12% vs Oil +11.99%

---
Source: SimpleFunctions World Model — 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev
Drill down: GET /api/public/query?q=TOPIC | /api/public/market/TICKER | /api/public/contagion