# World (2026-07-04 18:46 UTC)
Regime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability
SimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 54 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.43 | Activity 17
Baseline: last 12h

## [divergence] Democratic win the House race for OR-… overshooting Antonio Reynoso receive at least 35% … — 98¢ gap [US Elections]
- lhs: {"name":"Will Antonio Reynoso receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-07 ","Δ":"-59c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Will Democratic win the House race for OR-01?: Suzanne Bonamici","Δ":"83c"}
- gap: -98
- theme: US Elections
- triggerTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-NY7D26AREYAREY-67
- laggingTicker: KXHOUSERACE-OR01-26-D
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gmy1lb`
  → Will Antonio Reynoso receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-07  spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [divergence] Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps … overshooting Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain cu… — 53¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]
- lhs: {"name":"Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the August Reserve B","Δ":"27c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Hike","Δ":"62c"}
- gap: -53
- theme: Fed / monetary policy
- triggerTicker: KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26AUG11-HOLD
- laggingTicker: KXFEDDECISION-27APR-H26
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-uve7tg`
  → Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Maintain current rate at the August Reserve B spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [consensus_break] Los Angeles C / Los Angeles R Pro Football t…: 11 markets deeply split (σ=45¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: KXSBHOST
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXSBHOST-2031-BAL","title":"Will the Baltimore Pro Football team be announced as the host for the 2031 Pro Football Championship?: Baltimore","price":95},{"ticker":"...
- dispersion: 45
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-fm79i3`

## [consensus_break] Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: SENATEAR
- markets: [{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-D","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: Hallie Shoffner","price":3},{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-R","title":"Will Republicans win the Se...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn866`

## [consensus_break] Who will hold the WBC Heavyweight Title?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)
- seriesKey: KXWBCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXWBCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-27-CHISOR","title":"Who will hold the WBC Heavyweight Title on January 1, 2027?: Derek Chisora","price":88},{"ticker":"KXWBCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-27...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 94
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ly67xp`

## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 9h — it rain in Phoenix?
- ticker: KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-PHX
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will it rain in Phoenix on Jul 4, 2026?: Phoenix
- price: 6
- settlesInHours: 9
- impliedProbability: 0.06
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-PHX`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-PHX`

## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 9h — it rain in Houston?
- ticker: KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-HOU
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will it rain in Houston on Jul 4, 2026?: Houston
- price: 8
- settlesInHours: 9
- impliedProbability: 0.08
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-HOU`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-HOU`

## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 9h — it rain in San Antonio?
- ticker: KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-SATX
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will it rain in San Antonio on Jul 4, 2026?: San Antonio
- price: 8
- settlesInHours: 9
- impliedProbability: 0.08
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-SATX`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXRAINHOLIDAY-260704-SATX`

## [regime_shift] market gone quiet: Activity 33→17 (-16)
- baselineAt: 2026-07-04T06:45:00.076Z
- driver: 
- primaryMover: Activity
- moves: [{"k":"Activity","from":33,"to":17,"Δ":-16,"unit":""}]
- atBaseline: {"disagreement":51,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":0.42,"activity":33}
- now: {"disagreement":54,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":0.43,"activity":17}
  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`

## [novel] NEW 6h @ 1¢ — Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Governo…
- ticker: KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Jay Collins
- listedAgoHours: 6
- currentPrice: 1
- volume24h: 5806
- note: listedAt = Kalshi open_time (proxy for created_at)
  → similar prior · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL`
  → topic path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`

## Zoom
- **Iran** — 68 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`
- **Oil & Energy** — 464 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`
- **Fed & Rates** — 884 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`
- **Recession** — 593 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`
- **2026 Elections** — 1918 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`
- **Crypto** — 622 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`
- **Ukraine/Russia** — 73 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`
- **China/Taiwan** — 100 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`

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Path: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
Op: snapshot · Generated in 2710ms