# World (2026-08-12 23:00 UTC)
Regime: High dispersion — low conviction regime
SimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 98 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth -0.41 | Activity 100
Baseline: last 12h

## [divergence] Democratic win the House race for VA-… overshooting Republican win the House race for WI-… — 107¢ gap [US Elections]
- lhs: {"name":"Will Republican win the House race for WI-07?: Michael Alfonso","Δ":"-86c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Will Democratic win the House race for VA-07?: Eugene Vindman","Δ":"91c"}
- gap: -107
- theme: US Elections
- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-WI07-26-R
- laggingTicker: HOUSEVA7-26-D
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ycdjlq`
  → Will Republican win the House race for WI-07?: Michael Alfonso spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [divergence] rate of core CPI inflation be above 2… overshooting rate of core PCE inflation be above 0… — 55¢ gap [Fed / monetary policy]
- lhs: {"name":"Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0%","Δ":"-91c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in August ","Δ":"80c"}
- gap: -55
- theme: Fed / monetary policy
- triggerTicker: KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.0
- laggingTicker: KXCPICOREYOY-26AUG-T2.3
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-vur3qm`
  → Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0% spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [regime_shift] dispersion up — fading conviction: Disagreement 51→98 (+47)
- baselineAt: 2026-08-12T11:00:00.049Z
- driver: economy
- primaryMover: Disagreement
- moves: [{"k":"Disagreement","from":51,"to":98,"Δ":47,"unit":""}]
- atBaseline: {"disagreement":51,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":-0.58,"activity":100}
- now: {"disagreement":98,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":-0.41,"activity":100}
  → drill into economy · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy`
  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`

## [consensus_break] Dean Pennington be the Democratic nominee fo…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: KXNHPRIMARY
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-ADIL","title":"Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Anthony DiLorenzo","price":89},{"ticker":"KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-HNOV","titl...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-1ps04`

## [consensus_break] Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average fo…: 10 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 91¢)
- seriesKey: KXUSGASCPI
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXUSGASCPI-26SEP11-T300","title":"Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for August 2026 be above 300?: Above 300","price":97},{"ticker":"KXUSGASCPI-26SEP11-...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 91
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6zdkmd`

## [consensus_break] Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 89¢)
- seriesKey: SENATEAR
- markets: [{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-D","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: Hallie Shoffner","price":6},{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-R","title":"Will Republicans win the Se...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 89
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn866`

## [residual] 2.6σ volume @ 27¢ — Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their Dece…
- ticker: KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps
- price: 27
- residualVr: 2.637
- vr: 3.637
- volume24h: 1735.36
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-7418ny`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25`

## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 5h — Barbaadi rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily To…
- ticker: KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-BAR
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Barbaadi rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 12, 2026?: Barbaadi
- price: 5
- settlesInHours: 5
- impliedProbability: 0.05
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-BAR`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-BAR`

## [resolving_soon] 93% no in 5h — Sheesha rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top…
- ticker: KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-SHE
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Sheesha rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 12, 2026?: Sheesha
- price: 7
- settlesInHours: 5
- impliedProbability: 0.07
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-SHE`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXYTTOPVIDEOG2D-26AUG12-SHE`

## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 5h — Dai Dai rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top…
- ticker: KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG12-DAI
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Dai Dai rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated Aug 12, 2026?: Dai Dai
- price: 8
- settlesInHours: 5
- impliedProbability: 0.08
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG12-DAI`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG12-DAI`

## Zoom
- **Iran** — 95 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`
- **Oil & Energy** — 298 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`
- **Fed & Rates** — 800 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`
- **Recession** — 592 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`
- **2026 Elections** — 1661 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`
- **Crypto** — 417 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`
- **Ukraine/Russia** — 92 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`
- **China/Taiwan** — 152 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`

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Path: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
Op: snapshot · Generated in 3422ms