# World (2026-08-19 11:31 UTC)
Regime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability
SimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 40 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth +0.44 | Activity 57
Baseline: since midnight UTC

## [divergence] margin of victory for Republicans in … lagging Republican win the House race for MO-… — 106¢ gap [US Elections]
- lhs: {"name":"Will Republican win the House race for MO-07?: Eric Burlison","Δ":"93c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Florida's 18th District House ","Δ":"20c"}
- gap: 106
- theme: US Elections
- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-MO07-26-R
- laggingTicker: KXMIDTERMMOV-FL18R-P28
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-g0s8d8`
  → Will Republican win the House race for MO-07?: Eric Burlison spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [residual] 3.9σ volume @ 22¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year …
- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.4
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 3.4%
- price: 22
- residualVr: 3.889
- vr: 4.045
- volume24h: 4470.77
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-p9m8on`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.4`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.4`

## [consensus_break] What states will redistrict Congressional el…: 15 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 94¢)
- seriesKey: KXREDISTRICTING
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXREDISTRICTING-26-AL","title":"What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?: Alabama","price":86},{"ticker":"KXREDISTRICTING-26-CA","title":...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 94
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-thsupp`

## [consensus_break] Dean Pennington be the Democratic nominee fo…: 6 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: KXNHPRIMARY
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-ADIL","title":"Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican nominee for NH-01?: Anthony DiLorenzo","price":89},{"ticker":"KXNHPRIMARY-01R26-HNOV","titl...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-1ps04`

## [consensus_break] Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 91¢)
- seriesKey: SENATEAR
- markets: [{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-D","title":"Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?: Hallie Shoffner","price":4},{"ticker":"SENATEAR-26-R","title":"Will Republicans win the Se...
- dispersion: 44
- range: 91
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-gn866`

## [resolving_soon] 89% no in 8h — USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction…
- ticker: KXCCAPRICEICE-26AUG48
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future?: CARB ≥ ICE
- price: 11
- settlesInHours: 8
- impliedProbability: 0.11
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCCAPRICEICE-26AUG48`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCCAPRICEICE-26AUG48`

## [resolving_soon] 92% yes in 16h — Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top…
- ticker: KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEOG-26AUG19-DAI
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Dai Dai rank #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos Global chart dated Aug 19, 2026?: Dai Dai
- price: 92
- settlesInHours: 16
- impliedProbability: 0.92
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEOG-26AUG19-DAI`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXYTDAILYTOPVIDEOG-26AUG19-DAI`

## [resolving_soon] 92% no in 16h — Sunflower rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily T…
- ticker: KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG19-SUN
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Sunflower rank #2 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos chart dated Aug 19, 2026?: Sunflower
- price: 8
- settlesInHours: 16
- impliedProbability: 0.08
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG19-SUN`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXYTTOPVIDEO2D-26AUG19-SUN`

## [residual] 1.4σ volume @ 16¢ — CPI rise more than 0.4% in August?
- ticker: KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?: Above 0.4%
- price: 16
- residualVr: 1.441
- vr: 1.597
- volume24h: 1393
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-bd19z7`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4`

## [regime_shift] regime shifting: Breadth 0.18→0.44 (+0.26)
- baselineAt: 2026-08-18T23:45:00.055Z
- driver: 
- primaryMover: Breadth
- moves: [{"k":"Breadth","from":0.18,"to":0.44,"Δ":0.26,"unit":""}]
- atBaseline: {"disagreement":41,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":0.18,"activity":50}
- now: {"disagreement":40,"geoRisk":0,"breadth":0.44,"activity":57}
  → 24h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=24h`

## Zoom
- **Iran** — 66 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`
- **Oil & Energy** — 311 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`
- **Fed & Rates** — 808 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`
- **Recession** — 587 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`
- **2026 Elections** — 1738 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`
- **Crypto** — 431 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`
- **Ukraine/Russia** — 93 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`
- **China/Taiwan** — 131 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`

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Path: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
Op: snapshot · Generated in 3344ms