# World (2026-05-20 17:00 UTC)
Regime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability
SimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 59 | GeoRisk 14 | Breadth +0.43 | Activity 14
Baseline: last 12h

## [divergence] Vermont Governor Democratic Primary W… lagging Keisha Lance Bottoms receive between … — 42¢ gap [US Elections]
- lhs: {"name":"Will Keisha Lance Bottoms receive between 55% and 60% of the popular vote in the","Δ":"41c"}
- rhs: {"name":"Vermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Aly Richards","Δ":"39c"}
- gap: 42
- theme: US Elections
- triggerTicker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVGANOMD26KLBKBOT-57
- laggingTicker: 0xf77bd5682beec44a135a9ab814a28e4b69481e84365243bc6a86f1cea39dfd76
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-nrst5x`
  → Will Keisha Lance Bottoms receive between 55% and 60% of the popular vote in the spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [divergence] What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in … overshooting WTI crude oil settlement price be abo… — 37¢ gap [Oil & energy]
- lhs: {"name":"Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on May 21, 2026?:","Δ":"-37c"}
- rhs: {"name":"What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↓ $95","Δ":"75c"}
- gap: -37
- theme: Oil & energy
- triggerTicker: KXWTI-26MAY2114-T99.99
- laggingTicker: 0xdddbb467bd3467653cdfa564b7288cd968cf43f720401e1c822c40a3e5715039
  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-d3i3t0`
  → Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on May 21, 2026?: spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`

## [residual] 3.5σ volume @ 22¢ — CPI rise more than 0.6% in May?
- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026?: Above 0.6%
- price: 22
- residualVr: 3.5
- vr: 3.868
- volume24h: 10961.68
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afdf`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.6`

## [consensus_break] What will be the top AI model this month?: 4 markets deeply split (σ=46¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: KXTOPMODEL
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAU","title":"What will be the top AI model this month?: claude-opus-4-6","price":5},{"ticker":"KXTOPMODEL-26MAY23-CLAUT","title":"What will be t...
- dispersion: 46
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ufrmu0`

## [consensus_break] CA-13 Primary Winners: 4 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 91¢)
- seriesKey: 403707
- markets: [{"ticker":"0x0d4d2eab8ac6b7da57d89bd5b3c80d04fd7f32bf11ebd6018cfd704b9b2ef335","title":"CA-13 Primary Winners: Kevin Lincoln II","price":90},{"ticker":"0x13bf01871ebf937568d118...
- dispersion: 43
- range: 91
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ynpdge`

## [consensus_break] Dogecoin price?: 18 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 94¢)
- seriesKey: KXDOGED
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXDOGED-26MAY2217-T0.0699999","title":"Dogecoin price  on May 22, 2026?: $0.07 or above","price":97},{"ticker":"KXDOGED-26MAY2217-T0.0749999","title":"Dogecoin price...
- dispersion: 43
- range: 94
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-alb7pz`

## [residual] 2.9σ volume @ 21¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in November?
- ticker: KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?: Above 0.5%
- price: 21
- residualVr: 2.867
- vr: 3.235
- volume24h: 679
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-kyzug2`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5`

## [residual] 2.5σ volume @ 40¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?
- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%
- price: 40
- residualVr: 2.497
- vr: 2.865
- volume24h: 2777.44
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`

## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 7h — CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino - Mor…
- ticker: 0xa0338e359da8f23f06383a529ef69d380bd1368d808dd278ba3948af376a2dd1
- venue: polymarket
- title: CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino - More Markets: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)
- price: 5
- settlesInHours: 7
- impliedProbability: 0.05
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/0xa0338e359da8f23f06383a529ef69d380bd1368d808dd278ba3948af376a2dd1`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=0xa0338e359da8f23f06383a529ef69d380bd1368d808dd278ba3948af376a2dd1`

## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 7h — Truflation EV Commodity Index be above 1231.…
- ticker: KXTRUEV-26MAY20-T1231.99
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on May 20, 2026 be above 1231.99?: Above 1231.99
- price: 95
- settlesInHours: 7
- impliedProbability: 0.95
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXTRUEV-26MAY20-T1231.99`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXTRUEV-26MAY20-T1231.99`

## Zoom
- **Iran** — 221 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`
- **Oil & Energy** — 467 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`
- **Fed & Rates** — 1112 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`
- **Recession** — 630 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`
- **2026 Elections** — 3216 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`
- **Crypto** — 871 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`
- **Ukraine/Russia** — 298 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`
- **China/Taiwan** — 356 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`

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Path: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
Op: snapshot · Generated in 3467ms