# World — Economy (2026-08-12 23:31 UTC)
Regime: High dispersion — low conviction regime
SimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 100 | GeoRisk 0 | Breadth -0.47 | Activity 100
Baseline: last 12h

## [residual] 3.4σ volume @ 94¢ — rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year …
- ticker: KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.1
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 3.1%
- price: 94
- residualVr: 3.409
- vr: 4.409
- volume24h: 1122.6
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-p9m8ok`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.1`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.1`

## [consensus_break] Argentina inflation rate MoM for July be abo…: 8 markets deeply split (σ=41¢, range 92¢)
- seriesKey: KXARMOMINF
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.2","title":"Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%","price":95},{"ticker":"KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.4","title"...
- dispersion: 41
- range: 92
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-mntf4b`

## [consensus_break] U.S. share of global GDP for be above 25.7%?: 9 markets deeply split (σ=36¢, range 91¢)
- seriesKey: KXUSGDPSHARE
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXUSGDPSHARE-27JUL01-T25.3","title":"Will U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 be above 25.3%?: Above 25.3%","price":95},{"ticker":"KXUSGDPSHARE-27JUL01-T25.4","title":...
- dispersion: 36
- range: 91
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-5abqfi`

## [consensus_break] European Central Bank Hike more than 25bps a…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=36¢, range 80¢)
- seriesKey: KXCBDECISIONEU
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXCBDECISIONEU-26SEP10-H25","title":"Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the September ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?: Hike 1-25bps","pric...
- dispersion: 36
- range: 80
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-3gp09b`

## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 19h — Argentina inflation rate MoM for July be abo…
- ticker: KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.2
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
- price: 95
- settlesInHours: 19
- impliedProbability: 0.95
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.2`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.2`

## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 19h — Argentina inflation rate MoM for July be abo…
- ticker: KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.4
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
- price: 95
- settlesInHours: 19
- impliedProbability: 0.95
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.4`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T1.4`

## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 19h — Argentina inflation rate MoM for July be abo…
- ticker: KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T2.2
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
- price: 6
- settlesInHours: 19
- impliedProbability: 0.06
- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢
- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢
  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T2.2`
  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=catalyst`
  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXARMOMINF-26AUG13-T2.2`

## [residual] 1.9σ volume @ 13¢ — CPI year-over-year in Aug?
- ticker: KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3
- venue: kalshi
- title: CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.3%
- price: 13
- residualVr: 1.865
- vr: 2.865
- volume24h: 875.91
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-g2v0ed`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3`

## [residual] 1.7σ volume @ 45¢ — CPI rise more than 0.2% in August?
- ticker: KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2
- venue: kalshi
- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?: Above 0.2%
- price: 45
- residualVr: 1.732
- vr: 2.732
- volume24h: 1485.69
  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-bd19z5`
  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2`
  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26AUG-T0.2`

## [consensus_break] rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in …: 23 markets deeply split (σ=35¢, range 93¢)
- seriesKey: KXPCECORE
- markets: [{"ticker":"KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.0","title":"Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in August 2026?: Above 0.0%","price":90},{"ticker":"KXPCECORE-26AUG-T0.1","title":"W...
- dispersion: 35
- range: 93
- implication: markets disagree on resolution level
  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=dispersion`
  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy?op=explain&item=s-ebkhv1`

## Zoom
- **Fed & Rates** — 1389 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy/fed-rate`
- **Recession** — 1389 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy/recession`

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Path: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/economy | Up: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world
Op: snapshot · Generated in 1210ms